The Grasdorf Plates

[Mat]

If you were bored by the Hawkin's Crop Circle theorems (Mick!!), if you were unimpressed by the Alien face in the field, if the cover of your Led Zep remastered doesn't make you go "coool" any more then for your delectation and debunking I bring you the Grassdorf Plates:

http://naturalplane.blogspot.co.uk/2...am-plates.html

My theory: Either a hoax or 100% Alien (Note, this is not true of the Hawkin's Crop Circles)

Enjoy!

Mat

[Mick]

If you were bored by the Hawkin's Crop Circle theorems (Mick!!), if you were unimpressed by the Alien face in the field, if the cover of your Led Zep remastered doesn't make you go "coool" any more then for your delectation and debunking I bring you the Grassdorf Plates:

http://naturalplane.blogspot.co.uk/2...am-plates.html

My theory: Either a hoax or 100% Alien (Note, this is not true of the Hawkin's Crop Circles)

Enjoy!

Mat

What probability would you give it to being aliens, if you were to bet on it?

[Mat]

What probability would you give it to being aliens, if you were to bet on it?

Um? what kind of question is that? How would you expect me to answer it? How would you answer it? Do we need to use the revised Drake Equation?

And also, how will "guessing abstract probabilities" lead to any kind of debunking?


Mat

[Mick]

It's a measure of how much weight you give the theories. I also think it (i.e the Grasdorf Plates) is either a hoax or aliens. However I thing the possibility of aliens is very small, something like 0.000000001%

But just giving an either/or gives the impression that you think it's 50/50. 50% probable.

So what do you think, considering the evidence, what's a ballpark probability in your mind for the aliens being the explanation for the Grasdorf Plates?

[Mat]

It's a measure of how much weight you give the theories.

That works where the entities (In the Ocham, not alien, sense) are known, but it becomes diminished useful the greater the unknown, which is the case with the alien hypothesis.

I also think it (i.e the Grasdorf Plates) is either a hoax or aliens.

(Asside: I hope you see how Hawkin's isnt like this)

However I thing the possibility of aliens is very small, something like 0.000000001%

That makes utterly no sense to me, except in the kind of circularity I am sure as a skilled debunker you would be keen to avoid!

Where on Earth (Or elsewhere) do you get that number from?

But just giving an either/or gives the impression that you think it's 50/50. 50% probable.

Then you have the wrong impression Here when I say either/or I am saying I cannot really make any kind of guess without being circular.

You may say: the evidence suggests there are no aliens.

I say: But what if this is the evidence?

So what do you think, considering the evidence, what's a ballpark probability in your mind for the aliens being the explanation?

I just can't really do that for the above reason.

What I can say is that if Aliens were trying to irrefutably contact us then doing it "The Grasdorf Way" would be a great way.


Cheers

[Mick]

What I can say is that if Alenis were trying to irrefutably contact us then doing it "The Grasdorf Way" would be a great way.

Really? Crop circles? That's the best way of contacting us?

Why not just show up? Why not beam a radio signal? Why not drop thousands of leaflets?

This looks exactly like a hoax to me. Some random guy dressed like a plumber shows up and finds a quarter million dollars worth of gold?

Sure you don't KNOW the probability - that's not what I'm asking. I'm asking if you had to bet, how likely do you think it is.

[Mat]

Really? Crop circles? That's the best way of contacting us?

Again Mick, you are assuming you know the motives/methods/mechanisms of the aliens.

Why not just show up?

maybe they did. Maybe they do. Maybe they cant. Maybe all they can do is send plates. Or make plates, and bend crops.

This looks exactly like a hoax to me. Some random guy dressed like a plumber shows up and finds a quarter million dollars worth of gold?

But you are a debunker. What it looks like to you, and your speculated rhetorical ponderings are not debunking, or really skeptical even.

Sure you don't KNOW the probability - that's not what I'm asking. I'm asking if you had to bet, how likely do you think it is.

That's a bit like asking which one of my unborn sons is most likley to have a jetski accident.

At best I can say that:

It is inevitable that there are aliens in the Galaxy.
It is very probable that some would have become space faring.
It is possible, with indeterminate probability, that aliens would visit Earth.
It is possible and not absurd that they would try to message us in various ways, including amazing plates (Hoax or not).

Mat

[Mick]

So crop circles and twenty pounds of gold are the best way for indeterminate aliens to achieving unknown goals? How so?

[Mat]

So crop circles and twenty pounds of gold

are the best way

for indeterminate aliens to achieving unknown goals? How so?

I never said "best" at all.

I am not sure you actually think about what I say. I think you just scan for keywords and come up with more questions unconnected to the original thread

I have only been here a week but I suspect Mick you have become so entrenched in debunking that you have got into a bad reason space. I can see you are a very smart guy but I think you treat everyone who you dont agree with as a homeopathic orb surfing truther nutcase and it lessons your skill in debate and chat. Please can you loosen up and dont see it all like this competation in which you must be the champion.

I would like to have lots of chats with you, but not when you cant chat and instead are robotic

Thanks

Mat

[Mick]

You said "a great way", which while perhaps not the best way, surely must be pretty close.

I think a great deal about what you say. I understand the arguments you make, but I think you are giving too much credence to what are essentially random theories. The problem is that you seem to be interpreting "possible, with indeterminate probability" as 50/50. As if for any event for which we do not know the probability of, we must treat it as equally likely as the absence of that event.

I think this is very interesting issue, and one that leads to a great failure of communication between skeptics, and non-skeptics.

It's also one that's linguistically easy to convolute the logic. If there's no evidence for something, and no evidence for the absence of something, then it's easy to "reason" that that means there's a 50/50 chance of that thing existing (or as you put it, an unknown probability).

I like to try to force people to say how likely they think something is. Because even though you can argue the probability is indeterminate, one still has to conduct one's life. Now if I though there was a 50/50 chance of aliens making crop circles, I would conduct my life in a different way - so clearly I think it's less - far less in fact, a very small possibility.

There's a difference between "indeterminate, yet likely", and "indeterminate, but very unlikely".

[Mat]

Hi Mick

possible, with indeterminate probability" as 50/50. As if for any event for which we do not know the probability of, we must treat it as equally likely as the absence of that event.

No, I treat it as indeterminate but you wish to force this into a guessed probability.

I cannot determine the probability; this makes even guessing redundant.

It's also one that's linguistically easy to convolute the logic.

Yes yes it is. But in fairness I think I am pretty good at not making that mistake and I would always acknowledge when I had.

I like to try to force people to say how likely they think something is.

I know you do! And this is why in my last post I said it was skilful of you, and I think it is in the vast majority of such speculative cases.

My or your or anyones' opinions guessed probability should have no value in a skeptical, reasoned discussion/debunking of a phenomenon.

Unless you are perfect then, like me, there is always room to improve ones debate and reasoning

Cheers

[farbot]

Gold, bronze and silver plates.....did these aliens want to join an olympic event? No, more seriously, I think the either hoax/either alien theory (with whatever probability 50/50, 99.9999999/0.00000001) narrows the debate. I think that manmade should be a better description. A hoax implies to me some guys who kinda thought, wouldn't it be cool if we could make everybody think that there are aliens?

While this is in no way part of my BS (belief system of bull shit...whatever the case may be): the man-made possibility still leaves open the question of intent. What is the intent? Just elaborate fooling around? A grandiose mindfuck? Suggesting to already gullible populace that there are indeed aliens floating around?

It reminds me of what former pres. Reagan used to say on at least three evens if I recall correctly. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QK-XATA-5gs

[Mick]

My or your or anyones' opinions guessed probability should have no value in a skeptical, reasoned discussion/debunking of a phenomenon.

Okay, so why do you think the only other option is aliens? Why not God? Why have you assigned God a zero probability, but Aliens get "indeterminate"?

What about pure coincidence? The plates were there for some other reason, and the wind happened to blow those patterns in the crop? You can't calculate the possibility of that happening either, but you know it's pretty small. But is it the same indeterminate as the alien's indeterminate.

"Indeterminate" does not mean you should suspend all judgement.

I think the probability of it being aliens is indeterminate, but small.

[Mat]

Gold, bronze and silver plates.....did these aliens want to join an olympic event?

Perhaps. Perhaps they had been monitoring humanity for ages and knew the long term importance of these metals (unlike Platinum and Californium, for example) and reasoned there would be good signifigance to the use of these elements in an allegedly very very pure form.

What is the intent? Just elaborate fooling around? A grandiose mindfuck? Suggesting to already gullible populace that there are indeed aliens floating around?

Who knows. BUT and I think this is the interesting part, if it is a hoax (manmade for unknown intentions), it has to be just about the worst hoax in history. Hardly anyone has heard about it. Massive FAIL

Mat

[Mat]

Okay, so why do you think the only other option is aliens? Why not God? Why have you assigned God a zero probability, but Aliens get "indeterminate"?

Oh Mick. Why are you so interested in my beliefs here??? I feel you are trying to nitpick me and, respectfully, I am not going to engage in that. So rather than fpocus on my beliefs and motives and reasoning's, hows about we focus on the hoaxers and forget these distracting and inevitably redundant specualtions.

I think the probability of it being aliens is indeterminate, but small.

Fine, but Frankly, I have no interest in your guestimates and I wish you had none in mine. I have an interest in your actual reasonings and potential explanations but you seem to refuse to give these.

[Mick]

Who knows. BUT and I think this is the interesting part, if it is a hoax (manmade for unknown intentions), it has to be just about the worst hoax in history. Hardly anyone has heard about it. Massive FAIL

There are billions of worse hoaxes, you've just never heard about them. This one actually got quite a bit of traction in the more open minded communities. People are still talking about it! http://www.abovetopsecret.com/forum/thread427739/pg1

[Mick]

I have an interest in your actual reasonings and potential explanations but you seem to refuse to give these.

About what specifically? About this? I think it's a hoax because that's what it looks like. Occams razor seems to apply perfectly in this case. Don't introduce new entities where they are not needed for the explanation.

Strange regular cat, or robot alien cat? I'll always go with regular cat unless there some actual evidence for the aliens.

[Mick]

The Milk Hill Stone?



Found in the middle of this crop circle?


No, not really. But the point is that hoaxes are easy to do. You make an artifact, you make a crop circle, you show up and find the artifact. You spin a story about how it's solid gold.

The amount of effort put into making these crop circles is very impressive. Is it surprising that some people take it one step beyond?

[Mat]

There are billions of worse hoaxes, you've just never heard about them.

Name one that cost a tenth of this one.*

*Edit, I mean the investment cost.

[Mat]

I think it's a hoax because that's what it looks like. Occams razor seems to apply perfectly in this case. Don't introduce new entities where they are not needed for the explanation.

I agree totally.

But parsimony should not preclude debate, chat and dialogue, especially on a forum where that is pretty much all we can do

Strange regular cat, or robot alien cat? I'll always go with regular cat unless there some actual evidence for the aliens.

Me too. Though if I was looking at dragonflies around an occupy protest I might not be so sure, real dragionfly or drone dragonfly?

[Mat]

The Milk Hill Stone?



Found in the middle of this crop circle?


No, not really. But the point is that hoaxes are easy to do. You make an artifact, you make a crop circle, you show up and find the artifact. You spin a story about how it's solid gold.

The amount of effort put into making these crop circles is very impressive. Is it surprising that some people take it one step beyond?

You are absolutely right there. And good call on the above images!

[Mat]

Also Mick to use your reasoning you would put it in a "special" place:

Content from external source:

Actually, the location of the pictogram is archaeologically significant: it lies at the foot of the Thieberg, a Thing or ancient Teutonic tribal parliament site,

[Mat]

Yikes... I have been reading some of the Above Top Secret posts about the plates, the level of convinced speculation is verging on the lame; and to think that anyone who has an interest in mysteries and c-theories gets lumped in with all of them and their's!

Talk about a pre-poisoned well...

Mat

[Mick]

But parsimony should not preclude debate, chat and dialogue, especially on a forum where that is pretty much all we can do

It does not preclude debate. But it does inform as to what might be productive areas of debate.

Me too. Though if I was looking at dragonflies around an occupy protest I might not be so sure, real dragionfly or drone dragonfly?

I don't think we are quite there with robot dragonflies as a practical surveillance method yet - mostly due to battery technology. One day soon perhaps. Look for hummingbirds instead

[Mat]

I don't think we are quite there with robot dragonflies as a practical surveillance method yet - mostly due to battery technology. One day soon perhaps. Look for hummingbirds instead

ha

Swans were so last year....

[Mick]

Here's a video from 2010, in German, showing the plates.

http://www.alpenparlament.tv/playlis...zeichen-teil-1

Which makes me think that Moschkote Litfass is the guy behind the hoax.



Here he is back in the original 1991 story.

How did he end up with the plates? I think it quite probably that he made them himself.

He is an eccentric artist, after all.
http://www.flickr.com/photos/moschko...in/photostream


http://www.bz-berlin.de/archiv/bombi...cle629008.html
(Google Translate)

Content from external source:

About this artist Berlin: Moschkote Litfass (70) carries on it one helmet with angel wings on it and a skull. For his installations (from 1001 Euro) he uses real bombs.
That they are not armed, did not stop the police, as 15 of them, including explosives experts, came to the opening in the Friedrichshain Gallery "WE" anrückten.
The quirky artist wants his work to point out that "romp in the world wars at least 40". Who is this man? Son of an entrepreneur, a reserve officer. Always equipped with knives and pepper spray. 1959 studied art in Berlin. Then he has his work "sold mainly on the U.S. West Coast." Therefore, he is financially independent. Today he lives in Hildesheim, has a sculpture park. "Some people think I'm a bonehead, others take me for a universal genius," he says. And after a pause: "I think both are right."
WE Gallery, to 13.11, Boxhagener Str 33, Friedrichshain.

The guy with the metal detector showed up nine days after the crop circle was made. That's plenty of time for Litfass to make the plates, even if he did not make the original crop circle. Then just plant them one night, and come back the next day.

Here's a video of Litfass and his art:
http://vimeo.com/29185077

[Mick]

Name one that cost a tenth of this one.*

*Edit, I mean the investment cost.

How much did it cost? The "gold" plate vanished. The "tests" cannot be corroborated. All they need to do is cast some metal plates, then maybe electroplate them the right metal.

A pound of silver in 1991 cost $64. Even if the silver plate was real, it's still less than $1000. And the hoaxers get to keep it, so essentially it costs them nothing (they could probably make a big profit by selling it as an artifact).

[farbot]

Perhaps. Perhaps they had been monitoring humanity for ages and knew the long term importance of these metals (unlike Platinum and Californium, for example) and reasoned there would be good signifigance to the use of these elements in an allegedly very very pure form.

Yes...if they know us that well and our symbolic values they would ofcourse use unknown symbology that are vaguely reminiscent of runes but are in themselves incomprehensible.... Seems very unlikely to me... Seems more likely if you want to make it all a bit mysterious and symbological on purpose. Just like the gold plate on Voyager (well, gold casing). There may be better material, but hey...gold looks good.

Who knows. BUT and I think this is the interesting part, if it is a hoax (manmade for unknown intentions), it has to be just about the worst hoax in history. Hardly anyone has heard about it. Massive FAIL

Mat

Well, I don't believe in that reasoning. First of all, consider that it would be aliens..who -according to your assertions- would have obviously studied us pretty well to know these things about us. If this was a fullfledged way of contacting us, why would almost no-one have heard about it (as you correctly stated)? Why not do it on the lawn of the White House, or underneath the Eiffel Tower or.... So that argument works both ways.

If it is deliberately made in a mind-fuck fashion you would only want to target the mind-fuckables. Not your average Joe who enjoys his baseball, but the fringers who are on the look-out for such events. Do I believe this to be the case? No...on things like this, I try to be very careful with beliefs (well...on all things, but here more than most of the times.)

Besides, I haven't even seen anything for myself or on another site than the more exotic kind. So, for all I know the reality is different than it seems (like the almost obligatory mentioning that the grain, plants were not cut or forcefully bent, etc.). Is there more to know on this subject. I believe there is, but I am leaning more towards the possible mindfuck scenario (in that a former UK minister is now a UFO-logist, one astronaut beliefs that they saw aliens on their missions, the DOD of America not to long ago released a press statement that on the UFO department they had not always been forthright with the public (I'll try and find the last one later on, it was pretty vague and you could interpret it in lots of ways but they did say that 'officially')