Flight Tracking

[Mick West]

The de-facto TLE propagator for satellites in usual orbits is SGP4

I use the satellite.js library, which uses SGP4
https://github.com/shashwatak/satellite-js

satellite.js​

A library to make satellite propagation via TLEs possible in the web. Provides the functions necessary for SGP4/SDP4 calculations, as callable javascript. Also provides functions for coordinate transforms.

The internals of this library are nearly identical to Brandon Rhode's sgp4 python library.

Content from External Source

 

[FatPhil]

Old, as in more than a few days, TLEs are not very useful for reentry prediction purposes. See for example this comparison here,


(from https://analyticalgraphics.my.sales...s/HowTo/Can-TLEs-be-used-for-Decay-Estimation)

It's data for Iridium 96
set 1 - black/green - apogee/perigee from Jan 2020 to Jun 2020 derived from TLE valid Jan 1
set 2 - blue/purple - apogee/perigee from Jan 2020 to Jun 2020 derived from most current TLE
actual reentry occured on May 30, about where set 2 takes the rapid plunge

The extrapolation from just the Jan 1 TLE looks pretty good for a few weeks, maybe even a couple of months, not just "a few days", depending on your accuracy requirements. Of course, you should always know the limitations of the data and the model you use, but it doesn't seem as bad as you're making out.

 

[Easy Muffin]

The extrapolation from just the Jan 1 TLE looks pretty good for a few weeks, maybe even a couple of months, not just "a few days", depending on your accuracy requirements. Of course, you should always know the limitations of the data and the model you use, but it doesn't seem as bad as you're making out.

Ah, I could have been more specific - by for reentry prediction purposes I meant the comparatively short time span of the days preceding the eventual burn-up. In the graph it'd be shortly before the point at which the perigees begin to deviate.

 

[FatPhil]

Ah, I could have been more specific - by for reentry prediction purposes I meant the comparatively short time span of the days preceding the eventual burn-up. In the graph it'd be shortly before the point at which the perigees begin to deviate.

OK, understood, yup the exponential increase of air density towards earth does mean that the resistence ramps up as it approaches its final orbits, so any errors in your input result in larger errors in the output, and so your model gets significantly less predictive as the catastrophe gets closer.

 

[jimmyslippin]

Do any of these (or any other) tools show flight plan data for flights scheduled in the future?

Specifically, the National Science Foundation has a Gulfstream V (N677F) used for environmental research (https://www.eol.ucar.edu/observing_facilities/hiaper) that has a schedule of projects with flights approved well in advance (https://www.eol.ucar.edu/content/raf-plans-and-schedules).

Where would this data pop up that I would be able to monitor and then, say, plan an entire episode of The Secret of Skinwalker Ranch around it to turn something mundane into high strangeness spookometry?

 

[Duke]

Do any of these (or any other) tools show flight plan data for flights scheduled in the future?

Specifically, the National Science Foundation has a Gulfstream V (N677F) used for environmental research (https://www.eol.ucar.edu/observing_facilities/hiaper) that has a schedule of projects with flights approved well in advance (https://www.eol.ucar.edu/content/raf-plans-and-schedules).

Where would this data pop up that I would be able to monitor and then, say, plan an entire episode of The Secret of Skinwalker Ranch around it to turn something mundane into high strangeness spookometry?

FR24 has a search feature, here is what popped up for the NSF Gulfstream you identified. You can look up planned flights on scheduled airlines, must be a function of filed flight plans. If NSF files a flight plan for the a/c, I would think you should be able track it throughout the flight.

 

[Mendel]

Mind you, flight plans can and do change. Delayed departure, bad weather, parts of the airspace getting closed because a head of state is travelling, part of the aircraft falling off, and countless other reasons can all affect whether the prediction of the flight plan comes true.

 

[jimmyslippin]

This may need to be broken out into its own thread, but a bit of background on why I am asking this question.

According to the NCAR Earth Observing Laboratory project schedule I linked to earlier, N677F is scheduled to undertake twelve flights from June through August as part of a NSF NCAR MethaneAIR project named MAIR-E.


Source: NCAR / EOL Research Aviation Facility 2024 Planning Chart

The flight paths for these operations are pretty complex. Here is some historical N677F flight data from MethaneAIR Phase 2 that took place on 11 August 2021 while former Utah Governor Gary Herbert was visiting Skinwalker Ranch.


Source: ADS-B Exchange

So if I was, say, Erik Bard monitoring the skies over Skinwalker Ranch for spooky Government spy vehicles, how far in advance of this flight actually happening could I obtain the kind of flight path data shown above? Could I also just look at a specific area for future flight data rather than individual aircraft?

 

[Mendel]

So if I was, say, Erik Bard monitoring the skies over Skinwalker Ranch for spooky Government spy vehicles, how far in advance of this flight actually happening could I obtain the kind of flight path data shown above?

if you had government contacts, you might even be able to affect the schedule

 

[JMartJr]

Here is some historical N677F flight data from MethaneAIR Phase 2 that took place on 11 August 2021 while former Utah Governor Gary Herbert was visiting Skinwalker Ranch.

Just for those like me who did not already know where Skinwalker Ranch is on that map, it's roughly where I've added the green dot.


Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Skinwalker_Ranch#/map/0