House Oversight Hearing on UAPs - July 26, 2023

[LilWabbit]

I don't believe "naively" in such claims. I believe (as previously stated), and as seems to be the consensus here, in a memetic explanation for the events, that is, and has periodically, infected government, media, and the public at large. I referenced evolutionary arguments for religion that would support how these beliefs work.

However, I said, that such specific "claims" of first hand witnesses testifying to the ICIG are sufficient to make me question the most plausible hypothesis. Not that I believe 100% that these claims are real, only that its enough to make me sincerely question the consensus argument.

Who has claimed "a consensus" argument here, isn't that rather a strawman? And why would that be plausible in the first place. I've presented very clearly what I think is the plausible argument and it has some complexity and nuance to it (8 components interacting) which we've variously discussed here at MB over the years and explored as all bringing to bear to this resurgent flap.

If the specificity and scale of testimonies of people having seen Elvis after his death would qualify as a proof of Elvis being alive, we would not need to do further investigations. It's a weak epistemology.

 

[sephirex]

Maybe consensus is not correct, but I am equating your explanation of 9 and the general folklore of UFOs as being the "memetic" explanation. I AGREE with you.

I am simply saying that the 2nd order claim made by Rubio, that people with "firsthand" accounts have contacted the ICIG, which I must take faithfully, is sufficient to make me consider the memetic explanation given that a first hand account of a UAP by current members of the program could challenge the memetic explanation.

 

[LilWabbit]

Maybe consensus is not correct, but I am equating your explanation of 9 and the general folklore of UFOs as being the "memetic" explanation. I AGREE with you.

I am simply saying that the 2nd order claim made by Rubio, that people with "firsthand" accounts have contacted the ICIG, which I must take faithfully,

The bolded bit here is the part that does not agree with me. And which many of us take issue with as being the gist of the problem: unquestioning belief in a politician, official or other person of seeming intellectual authority, because of an assumption that somehow they must know what they're talking about and have access.

We're stuck with arguments from authority. We have no compelling evidence. Only claims. This fact in and of itself should rouse some skepticism given that hundreds of thousands of believers inside the government over the decades would likely have leaked something far more solid by now if solid evidence truly existed.

 

[sephirex]

the bit I am taking faithfully is the 2nd order claim - the statement by Rubio. If we are not able to trust what Senator's are saying, then we are in a very bad place.

 

[LilWabbit]

the bit I am taking faithfully is the 2nd order claim - the statement by Rubio. If we are not able to trust what Senator's are saying, then we are in a very bad place.

100 % agreed. With the caveat that the bolded bit is a true statement indeed. We are in a very bad place indeed. Since when have politicians been known to be more truthful or accurate than anybody else. Notice, being inaccurate doesn't mean consciously lying. Having said that, I daresay it's safe to assume based on historical evidence that politicians also lie once in a blue moon. Even if it's not the case with Rubio to whom I'm also not willing to naively give a free pass out of the pure kindness of my heart.

 

[sephirex]

My concern is that this is a huge distraction from the more pressing civilisation scale threats faced by humanity - specifically climate change and the impact of AI on warfare, the economy, and media. This topic needs to be resolved urgently so we can move on.

To do so there is a minimum level of sincerity and good faith we must extend to people across all sides of this debate. If we are at a point where we are questioning every statement someone makes, including the most reputable Senators, I do not see how progress will ever be achieved.

It seems the same logic you are using to question Rubio's statement is that same logic the UFO believers are relying on to question AARO's statements.

 

[LilWabbit]

My concern is that this is a huge distraction from the more pressing civilisation scale threats faced by humanity

Agreed.

To do so there is a minimum level of sincerity and good faith we must extend to people across all sides of this debate.

(1) Agreed that there's an ample amount of sincerity on all sides of the debate.

(2) I disagree with the suggestion that sincerity of belief in one's claim (say, the claim "these individuals x, y and z inside the DoD have real first-hand alien evidence and experience") translates to the truth of one's claim. Many sincere beliefs and claims are untrue or inaccurate (containing partial truths).

(3) I disagree that a person who's capable of sincerity is incapable of dishonesty and deceit.

(4) I disagree that there's no grifters and deliberate manipulators involved in this flap on the ufologist side.

If we are at a point where we are questioning every statement someone makes, including the most reputable Senators, I do not see how progress will ever be achieved.

It's not flat-out questioning but healthy criticism of the veracity and accuracy of human statements which, we should assume, are never perfect. This should be in fact taught already in schools and the opposite can be claimed: That what impedes progress is lack of basic critical thinking, including source criticism and scientific training.

It seems the same logic you are using to question Rubio's statement is that same logic the UFO believers are relying on to question AARO's statements.

Seemingly so. But the critical difference is that (1) AARO is legally mandated, by a bipartisan Congress decision none other, to pursue objective evidence-based investigations upholding rigour and accuracy, whereas Rubio isn't. He's a party hack. And (2) discrediting AARO's statements stems from a believers' dissatisfaction that Kirkpatrick has come out in the open and said thus far there's zero evidence for aliens. If one strongly believes in aliens even without solid evidence, these kinds of statements are uncomfortable and feels like AARO is controlled by, or loyal to, "they", and part of the same big cover-up. Even if the statement were just honest and objective description of the current state of play.

If you want to explore further the big picture regarding the UFO flap which you seem to be doing, please continue on this thread which I started for that very purpose. This thread is way too long and Mick has repeatedly asked us to start other threads to go into different aspects surrounding the Grusch hearing.

 

[Mauro]

(9) The resurgent UFO flap, including the very existence of publicly funded UAP investigation entities, is a unique example of:

(9.1) The inherent vulnerability of a certain democratic government to the influence of able political lobby groups consisting of relatively few leading individuals;

(9.2) Supported by a large number of ideologically committed believers both inside and outside the government;

(9.3) Drawing variously on entertainment-based sci-fi folklore, lack of purpose, lack of belonging, need for attention, need to feel special, and sometimes involving grifters manipulating the foregoing for personal gain;

(9.4) Sustained by the impressionability of the generality of people;

(9.5) Also sustained by a vast number of sincere eyewitness reports from the general public, whereby the power of human imagination together with the brain's visual perception functions, further informed by cultural fiction and myth, fills observational information gaps;

(9.6) Also sustained by a small number of sincere reports of encounter experiences with aliens (including detailed stories of abductions, physical contact, crafts, etc.), whereby psychotic, hallucinatory or autosuggestive episodes, informed by cultural fiction and myth, are sincerely believed and remembered as real encounters;

(9.7) Also sustained by continuously emerging unidentifiable low-information sensor data (including photographs and video footage) of mundane airborne objects which are bound to invite UFO speculation. Even the most cutting-edge sensors of the future will have their capability limits at which they will generate low-information sensor data;

(9.8) As a belief system, the UFO ideology consists of many semi-canonized faith-based tenets that precede evidence, looks for whatever evidentiary support it can find, and thrives in the low information zone (anecdotes and low-information physical records) in the absence of scientifically more compelling evidence.

Thumbs up!

 

[sephirex]

will do. thanks for your detailed reply

 

[jarlrmai]

My concern is that this is a huge distraction from the more pressing civilisation scale threats faced by humanity - specifically climate change and the impact of AI on warfare, the economy, and media. This topic needs to be resolved urgently so we can move on.

To do so there is a minimum level of sincerity and good faith we must extend to people across all sides of this debate. If we are at a point where we are questioning every statement someone makes, including the most reputable Senators, I do not see how progress will ever be achieved.

It seems the same logic you are using to question Rubio's statement is that same logic the UFO believers are relying on to question AARO's statements.

The use of alien technology that's being suppressed to fix/prevent climate change or the intervention of aliens to stop a nuclear war etc are common themes of hope of posters on UFO forums. Alongside this is a the "revelation of aliens" as a sort of turning point point/blank slate for them/humanity. This false hope is also damaging.

that people with "firsthand" accounts have contacted the ICIG

David Fravor is a person with a 1st hand account, there are a lot of people with 1st hand accounts, doesn't mean that the thing they think was a UFO was actually a UFO/alien spaceship.

 

[Curious George]

Most of your quotes are people's opinions and not actual evidence or testimony, and they're very indirect, @Curious George .

It's not enough for a testimony to be credible, it must also check out as true. Investigations must be initiated because of suspicions, but they too must turn out to be true.

And mixing together sources of varying reliability doesn't imply they're all reliable.

The questions I've posed in my previous message remain open.

Ok, I understand the type of evidence you require and besides the report of the Tic-Tac like UAP found by the multiple satellites and forwarded to UAPTF, or the incident related to Rep. Gaetz at the hearing of testimony he received at Eglin AFB in Florida on Feb 21 about the F-22 pilot who intercepted 4 UAP up to 50 feet away and saw the picture of it, I don't have any further direct evidence. At least I've provided further quotes and information that others can debate, again which I stated at the beginning, I don't believe had been posted yet. Thanks for the discussion.

 

[Landru]

Ok, I understand the type of evidence you require and besides the report of the Tic-Tac like UAP found by the multiple satellites and forwarded to UAPTF, or the incident related to Rep. Gaetz at the hearing of testimony he received at Eglin AFB in Florida on Feb 21 about the F-22 pilot who intercepted 4 UAP up to 50 feet away and saw the picture of it, I don't have any further direct evidence. At least I've provided further quotes and information that others can debate, again which I stated at the beginning, I don't believe had been posted yet. Thanks for the discussion.

Why don't you start a new thread as Mick suggested (if you have actual evidence). This thread has played out.

 

[deirdre]

Also note, that this isn't just about testimony. Grusch himself has submitted evidence which consists of "photos, official documents and oral testimony of 40 witnesses"

youre on a forum where countless people have submitted "photos, official documents and oral testimony of witnesses" constantly. (look in our political forum or 9/11 forum, false flag forum, ufo forum etc even cryptids really). Heck you even just posted the oral testimony of cosmic-clearance Morris.

I dont think many here are impressed by your statement (no offense).

 

[NorCal Dave]

https://tvtropes.org/pmwiki/pmwiki.php/Main/IdiotBall

Ok, I understand the type of evidence you require and besides the report of the Tic-Tac like UAP found by the multiple satellites and forwarded to UAPTF, or the incident related to Rep. Gaetz at the hearing of testimony he received at Eglin AFB in Florida on Feb 21 about the F-22 pilot who intercepted 4 UAP up to 50 feet away and saw the picture of it, I don't have any further direct evidence. At least I've provided further quotes and information that others can debate, again which I stated at the beginning, I don't believe had been posted yet. Thanks for the discussion.

I had some thoughts, but like Landru said above, a new thread would be a better place. This one's already at 23 pages and includes a discussion of string theory IIRC.

 

[Curious George]

As I said,

I don't have any further direct evidence

. No need for another thread. I have submitted all the quotes I have researched.

 

[JMartJr]

1) UFO believers have infiltrated the highest levels of the US government and successfully run their own psyop campaign against the most powerful military intelligence apparatus in the world

To my mind, that implies organized intent -- The Secret Conference of UFO Believers decided one day to infiltrate the highest levels 0f the US government. There may be a less sinister explanation;

1.1) There are a lot of UFO believers in the world at large. Barring an effort to proactively screen them out, many will wind up working for the government, some at high levels. At some point, they find each other and/or are found by believe activists outside of government and start talking to each other, convincing each other about things and eventually some go public. (NOTE: This is consistent with, but does not require, some folks consciously seeking to enhance their own positions/funding within or outside of the government, for financial or other reasons.)

 

[PacketSniffer5000]

5) The US military industrial complex has kept a multi generation leap in technology hidden for decades and a faction is fighting for this to be disclosed to the public for x, y, z reasons

6) UAPs & NHIs are real and the US military industrial complex has kept this secret from the world since for decades.

7) China (lets be honest its not Russia) has developed capabilities far beyond that of the US and its allies that has significant ramifications for the world order.

8) It's all birds, balloons, and other prosaic explanations, and there have been multiple failures up the entire chain that failed to catch this.

Only 5 to 8 make sense in an empirical context.

First-hand accounts from non-aviation authorities are of low value, except for the purpose of debunking and fighting against superstition. The resurgence of UFOs in the public media stems from US military sources: the reports of the small unmanned aerial systems referenced in the The Drive piece on Arizona, the classic Fravor/Dietrich/Graves/Underwood sightings, and the summary reports from AARO discussing commonalities of UAPs that have not been explained. Options 1-4 seem to belong in a conspiracy theory drawer and is a separate focus of social and psychological study.

The evidence we get is very redacted and brief, but the main commonalities (if I may!) are that these UAPs are relatively small, are found at surprisingly high altitudes up to 33,000 feet (or more if following Fravor's testimony based on his radar colleagues), and move relatively fast or can remain stationary even in strong winds.

The low altitude ones from Arizona were clearly recognised, if not verified, as drones like quadcopters and so on. The higher altitude ones of interest relate to the Navy sightings. The increase in sighting correlates, I presume, with the proliferation of drone technology including spy and weather balloons and the increased resolution of radar systems that are now finding them. Beyond that, you would need access to the actual raw data and analytics experts to make any sense of that but it seems AARO is equiped at the scale of a local council committee so we are where we are.

 

[Mendel]

the bit I am taking faithfully is the 2nd order claim - the statement by Rubio. If we are not able to trust what Senator's are saying, then we are in a very bad place.

You trust politicians?

Article:

Source: https://www.politifact.com/factchecks/list/?speaker=marco-rubio

Just a selection.
Nobody is perfect, the old Romans knew that errare humanum est, and if you do a job that you can only keep if you tell people what they want to hear, well...

That's why we look for evidence.

 

[Mendel]

Several current members of the recovery program spoke to the Inspector General’s office and corroborated the information Grusch had provided for the classified complaint.

From the complaint ( see https://www.metabunk.org/threads/da...-statement-and-ig-complaint.12989/post-291923 ):


I don't think many here believe that Grusch falsified the evidence he provided to the DoD IG.
But what we're doubtful about is that it proves what he claims it does, especially the more outlandish claims he's made to the public.

The phrase "corroborated the information provided" speaks to the former (evidence is true) but not the latter (evidence proves the claims). We just don't know what the evidence is.

 

[Deleted member 19405]

From the complaint ( see https://www.metabunk.org/threads/da...-statement-and-ig-complaint.12989/post-291923 ):


I don't think many here believe that Grusch falsified the evidence he provided to the DoD IG.
But what we're doubtful about is that it proves what he claims it does, especially the more outlandish claims he's made to the public.

The phrase "corroborated the information provided" speaks to the former (evidence is true) but not the latter (evidence proves the claims). We just don't know what the evidence is.

Exactly. For all we know, the "UAPs" (I'm becoming more and more furious thinking about how easily this term has replaced "UFOs") he's referring to are military aircraft (domestic or foreign) and the "NHIs" are either experimental monkey pilots or squished dolphins that happened to be caught up in a "UAP" crash.

The automatic conflation of UAP/NHI = Alien, is really alarming, especially as it's getting a pass at the level of U.S. Congress.

 

[sephirex]

You trust politicians?

i will take Rubio at his word when he is making a 2nd order claim about corroboration from other "firsthand" accounts. not the 1st order claim that its true and UAPs are real. i.e. multiple "firsthand" witnesses have supported the same/similar 1st order claim.

We all know politicians lie sometimes, i'm not a child. This statement however falls into a category of statements that would seem to have little benefit and great risk in making. It's unnecessary, and he seems sincere. Again i'm just taking him at his word, that multiple "firsthand" witnesses have made a similar, yet unverified, claim about UAPs.

It seems weird that this is so contentious - it says nothing about the veracity of said 1st order claims.

the "NHIs" are either experimental monkey pilots or squished dolphins that happened to be caught up in a "UAP" crash.

while this is plausible, it seems improbable that they are conflating the two. This argument doesn't really help unless you think there is an active deliberate PSYOP or the military is completely useless.

But what we're doubtful about is that it proves what he claims it does, especially the more outlandish claims he's made to the public.

total agreement. i wasn't advocating that because he said it, its true. but he seems sincere in his beliefs and has gone under oath. thats all.

 

[deirdre]

Just a selection.

you should have picked a different selection.

(although ...yes the Wisconsin company that made his boots, outsources its manufacturing..but does not knowing that really deserve a "pants on fire?".

Article:

Fitsnews, a conservative website, added Rubio's "decidedly metrosexual footwear selections" to its list of reasons not to vote for him.

Source: https://www.vox.com/2016/1/8/10735692/marco-rubio-boots-sexism

)

 

[Mendel]

i will take Rubio at his word when he is making a 2nd order claim about corroboration from other "firsthand" accounts. not the 1st order claim that its true and UAPs are real. i.e. multiple "firsthand" witnesses have supported the same/similar 1st order claim.

We all know politicians lie sometimes, i'm not a child. This statement however falls into a category of statements that would seem to have little benefit and great risk in making. It's unnecessary, and he seems sincere. Again i'm just taking him at his word, that multiple "firsthand" witnesses have made a similar, yet unverified, claim about UAPs.

I don't think there's a risk for Rubio in being half-true here, and it probably does benefit him politically. We know from Kirkpatrick that several witnesses have come forward, but Kirkpatrick's claim is that their testimony leads nowhere. I can easily see that being true, and Rubio stating what he did.

 

[Ann K]

The automatic conflation of UAP/NHI = Alien, is really alarming, especially as it's getting a pass at the level of U.S. Congress.

And THIS is what passes as news ...er FOX "news". From Robert McGinness:

Washington is getting serious about reports of unidentified flying objects (UFO), what the Pentagon now labels as unidentified aerial phenomena or UAPs. There is a long history of such sightings and the increase in such observations could be a sign of things to come. Are we really being visited by aliens or is all this just a bunch of hokum? There might be another more daunting explanation. I believe there is a very real spiritual domain beyond our senses. You can call them aliens, angels, demons or other.

Certainly, people of many faiths understand God’s nemesis, Satan, is very real and his army of demons are not to be dismissed. Jesus dealt with demons who understood His true identity and obeyed His command. Today, Satan’s demonic army is very active. They manifest themselves through various practices such as divination, witchcraft, channeling and wizardry (Deuteronomy 18:10-12). They deceive, attack the human mind with the intent of control, and they leverage power to take captive people, especially the prominent.

Content from External Source

When people are fed baloney they tend to believe baloney. We are a nation of morons, but that is done on purpose, not an accident.

 

[Candy-O]

And THIS is what passes as news ...er FOX "news". From Robert McGinness:

Washington is getting serious about reports of unidentified flying objects (UFO), what the Pentagon now labels as unidentified aerial phenomena or UAPs. There is a long history of such sightings and the increase in such observations could be a sign of things to come. Are we really being visited by aliens or is all this just a bunch of hokum? There might be another more daunting explanation. I believe there is a very real spiritual domain beyond our senses. You can call them aliens, angels, demons or other.

Certainly, people of many faiths understand God’s nemesis, Satan, is very real and his army of demons are not to be dismissed. Jesus dealt with demons who understood His true identity and obeyed His command. Today, Satan’s demonic army is very active. They manifest themselves through various practices such as divination, witchcraft, channeling and wizardry (Deuteronomy 18:10-12). They deceive, attack the human mind with the intent of control, and they leverage power to take captive people, especially the prominent.

Content from External Source

When people are fed baloney they tend to believe baloney. We are a nation of morons, but that is done on purpose, not an accident.

That's an opinion piece, and is stated as such, not something presented as a hard news story.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/the-bibles-explainer-on-ufos

 

[Itsme]

We know from Kirkpatrick that several witnesses have come forward, but Kirkpatrick's claim is that their testimony leads nowhere.

Do you have a source for that?

 

[Mendel]

Do you have a source for that?

Sure.

SK: {We've interviewed almost 30 individuals who have come in to provide their testimony. And out of all of those, none of it has yet led to any verifiable information that substantiates the claim that the U.S. government has those ships or has a reverse-engineering program either in the past or currently.}

Content from External Source

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/ext...-pentagon-ufo-investigator/story?id=101218299

Finally, to be clear, AARO has yet to find any credible evidence to support the allegations of any reverse engineering program for non-human technology.

Content from External Source

Source: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/st...ean-kirkpatrick-on-the-hoc-uap-hearing.13069/

 

[Ann K]

That's an opinion piece, and is stated as such, not something presented as a hard news story.
https://www.foxnews.com/opinion/the-bibles-explainer-on-ufos

Do you really think that distinction is made by their audience?

 

[Itsme]

Sure.
SK: {We've interviewed almost 30 individuals who have come in to provide their testimony. And out of all of those, none of it has yet led to any verifiable information that substantiates the claim that the U.S. government has those ships or has a reverse-engineering program either in the past or currently.}
Source: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/st...ean-kirkpatrick-on-the-hoc-uap-hearing.13069/

Note he uses the word "yet" in both statements, but he also stated in that same ABC interview

Article:

"A number of these [whistleblowers] believe and have stated -- and we believe them now -- that they have seen something. And we are investigating,"

Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/extraterrestrial-technical-supremacy-top-concern-pentagon-ufo-investigator/story?id=101218299

 

[Mendel]

Note he uses the word "yet" in both statements, but he also stated in that same ABC interview

Article:

"A number of these [whistleblowers] believe and have stated -- and we believe them now -- that they have seen something. And we are investigating,"

Source: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/extraterrestrial-technical-supremacy-top-concern-pentagon-ufo-investigator/story?id=101218299

note he phrases "believe they have seen something" and not simply that they've seen something. Kirkpatrick technically says that AARO believes that the witnesses believe they've seen something. He does not say that AARO believes they've seen something. If AARO believed that, Kirkpatrick couldn't say that AARO doesn't have verifiable information.

but, yes, you are right, Kirkpatrick doesn't rule out that some of this testimony might lead somewhere some day. It just hasn't yet, and probably never will.

 

[JMartJr]

That's an opinion piece, and is stated as such, not something presented as a hard news story.

Do you really think that distinction is made by their audience?

I doubt it. But two points: The distinction is nonetheless valid, it is the responsibillity of the consumer to know the difference. The tendency to take an opinion piece as news is probably not limited to people who watch the news channel that I don't care for.

 

[FatPhil]

you should have picked a different selection.

You should have made a better counter-argument.

If you think this is a poor quality post, then perhaps, maybe, just maybe ...

 

[deirdre]

If you think this is a poor quality post, then perhaps, maybe, just maybe ...

I should have taken the bait and dragged this thread way off topic again?

 

[deirdre]

I doubt it.

in this particular case it's labeled pretty good.

 

[Mendel]

i will take Rubio at his word when he is making a 2nd order claim about corroboration from other "firsthand" accounts.

From 2 years ago:

Marco Rubio 1:00
Well, the way politics are now I assure you if the classified has something spicy in, ain't no way that doesn't leak. You known what I mean?

Content from External Source

 

[PublicStranger]

Jeremy Corbell says we will be hearing from first hand witnesses to the "legacy" program.

Another Bob Lazar moment...

 

[Mendel]

Jeremy Corbell says we will be hearing from first hand witnesses to the "legacy" program.

Is "legacy program" referring to AASWAP/AATIP, UAPTF, or what? Project Blue Book?

 

[Mendel]

Is "legacy program" referring to AASWAP/AATIP, UAPTF, or what? Project Blue Book?

Article:

In his statements cleared for publication by the Pentagon in April, Grusch asserted that UFO “legacy programs” have long been concealed within “multiple agencies nesting UAP activities in conventional secret access programs without appropriate reporting to various oversight authorities.”

Source: https://thedebrief.org/intelligence-officials-say-u-s-has-retrieved-non-human-craft/

In the hearing, Burchett asked Grusch, "Do you have any personal knowledge of someone who’s possibly been injured working on legacy UAP reverse engineering?" That's the only time the word "legacy" was mentioned in the hearing, according to the AI transcript.

At any rate, Grusch used "programs", implying there's more than one, while Corbell doesn't.

 

[Mendel]

"David Grusch has more to tell" begs the question, what was he waiting for?

 

[Nemon]

By the way: using "UFO" and "UAP" for man-owned alien spacecrafts doesn't make any sense; they'd be the less unidentified objects or phenomena of all. So may I suggest the one side continues with their old acronyms while the other side switches to more applicable ones - like "unproven failed objects" (UFO) and "unproven alleged phenomena" (UAP)