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Yes and that's in fact what Ryan Graves describes in this interview : https://thedebrief.org/devices-of-unknown-origin-part-ii-interlopers-over-the-atlantic-ryan-graves/ “It was going like 120 knots, basically stationary. None of our jets are just going to be sitting there stationary at 120...

Same for the relative humidity at 400 mb

An animation for the wind at 400 mb (every hour from January 20, 00:00 UTC, to January 21, 23:00 UTC)

Hi all, Lately there has been discussions about the weather conditions during Gimbal, especially the wind, clouds, that are clues to help us better locating where Gimbal happened, and to recreate the event. I'd like to contribute with this because I'm familiar with this kind of data. First...

If the lines of sight were parallel, clouds in the forefront would still move from left to right, wouldn't they? It doesn't change my point that the lines of sight have to cross.

I have not. If the clouds have a speed due to difference in wind relative to the altitude of Gimbal and the fighter, I think this is secondary compared to the speed of Gimbal, and/or apparent speed due to the F18 speed (parallax effect, important at close distance, less at far distance). While...

Here is a model that shows the vertical profile of the situation here : - the earth surface is the blue line (circle equals to Earth radius at 30N, Jacksonville latitude - the clouds are shown as the dashed grey line, their height (in m) can be adjusted (on this example, this is ~5000m) - the...

Yes that's true, I didn't want to be definitive about that because you may still have wind gusts with a lower 3-hour average wind. But indeed the wind data favors a later time between 9am and 15pm UTC (after that the high winds start being way far the coast). @jplaza and if like you argue the...

Yes we have the bank angles of the plane, and its speed. It gives you its rate of turn. Pardon me but not sure I follow this argument. I think what you're saying would be true if the F-18 was stationary, only rotating on itself. Here there is the motion of the F-18 (inducing parallax), plus the...

Has it been ever mentioned how far from the coast GoFast and Gimbal were shot ? I remember reading about this, but I'm not sure (so much information spread in different threads at this point).

@Mauro : we have the bank angle of the plane, its speed, so we can estimate how much it turned. Look at all the geometrical reconstructions that have been made (in the other threads about Gimbal). I think that's a very certain thing that the plane didn't turn more than 90°. I was able to get...

Hi Mauro, I see two main problems with this hypothesis : 1) the plane does not turn nearly as much as that, it's turning by an angle of about 60-70°. The average rate of turn is ~2°/s, over 34 sec that makes a ~70° turn. In your model the plane turns by more than 90°. 2) Gimbal is going...

I think there is a big elephant in the room here : the direction of scanning of the clouds. In the analyses of the lines of sight, we have all agreed on the fighter being behind Gimbal, seeing it on its left, then being right behind it as it closes on it. Like simulated on this flight...

@Leonardo Cuellar , I think that's what people here have agreed upon.

More weather informations for January 21st 2015, this time the wind at 400 millibars (~25000 ft): The vectors show the wind direction, the color its amplitude. It's quite a coarse resolution data (2deg, or ~200km), but at this altitude there is not much of local variations in the wind, it's...

Yes I meant January 20 EST, that includes the night and early morning of January 21 UTC. But after it cleared. So it's consistent with what you're saying.

The sky cleared on January 21st off the coast of Florida. If not further than 200km from the coast, it suggests Gimbal happened on January 20, EST. But it could be earlier in the day than the launch, as the cloud cover was present all day.

Another good resource to check the cloud cover on January 20-21 2015 : https://climatereanalyzer.org/wx/satellite/ January 21st 2015, 1:15 UTC

Note that I used a FOV of 0.7, and because the ATFLIR is in Mode 2, it may be 0.35 deg (is it for sure?). Regardless of this, the speed at long distances are too fast for a plane.

Thanks @Mauro, much appreciated. I see that the FOV I should use is 0.35 deg (not 0.7), as we are in Zoom 2 mode on the ATFLIR. With FOV=0.35 the speed is more around 9000 km/h. Maybe that's more consistent with what you would expect from a rocket at that stage of the launch. It's certainly a...