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  1. TheCholla

    The Shape and Size of Glare Around Bright Lights or IR Heat Sources

    A similar garage experiment but with a turbine engine and IR sensors. More relevant than a lamp torch blinding a regular camera. https://www.mdpi.com/1424-8220/18/2/428 MWIR (in function of aspect angle) Radiation area(left) and radiance (right) in the different IR bands (still in function...
  2. TheCholla

    Which Gimbal scenario is more likely — 30 NM or 10 NM?

    It's not 2-3⁰ of pod roll, it's 2-3⁰ of deviation from target (where the pod is looking, versus where the target is). The first quote is from a private exchange L. Cook had with Marik, who is the co-author of our Gimbal paper so I know about it. The second one is public on Twitter: Source...
  3. TheCholla

    Which Gimbal scenario is more likely — 30 NM or 10 NM?

    True, why I think a readjustement on target of 2-3° at each step rotation (Sitrec Gimbal sim) would cause more than a little bump in the image. This implies 6-8 FOV are crossed one way by the pod roll to catch up, the other way by an internal mirror to recenter, at each step rotation, in a...
  4. TheCholla

    Peings and von Rennenkampff: Reconstruction of Potential Flight Paths for the January 2015 “Gimbal” UAP

    The stop LT Graves describes is not the stop in the local air mass. It's the moment when air speed passes under wind speed (~120kts), i.e. 0 ground speed. Ground speed is what they see on the SA display. He has said multiple times, including to us in private discussions, that the object...
  5. TheCholla

    Peings and von Rennenkampff: Reconstruction of Potential Flight Paths for the January 2015 “Gimbal” UAP

    The 15% change in apparent size was also selected based on measuring changes in both axes (d=1/s), and taking a middle-ground estimate for the change in distance (previous work on this forum found a 10-20% change in size, so it's in the ballpark). We've been aiming for the 10-20% interval of...
  6. TheCholla

    Meteorological data to help in understanding Gimbal and GoFast (January 20 and 21, 2015)

    Sounds like a typo or misunderstanding from the journalist. The range fouler report mentions the "at-sea period".
  7. TheCholla

    Go Fast - Balloon theory

    What if Gimbal/GoFast happened on the evening of January 24 EST? And not Jan21. Jan25 2:30 UTC is the date that is indicated in the metadata of the Gimbal video. January 25 is also the dates given for these events (referred to as the new "Tic-Tac events"), in an unclassified DoD email Marik...
  8. TheCholla

    2022 Annual Report on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

    All these claims originate from TTSA. What the aviators say is more nuanced. Like you say it depends on what the goal is. Debunk TTSA, or explain? That needs to be clearly stated when discussing those. If the goal is to explain and you say those are random planes and a balloon, we need to...
  9. TheCholla

    2022 Annual Report on Unidentified Aerial Phenomena

    Does it ever occur to you that what keeps "UFO enthusiasts" interested is the non-resolution (or disclosure) of famous UAP cases. As a reminder, DoD themselves published the three Navy videos on their website in 2020, saying they show unidentified things, while no revealing any sensible system...
  10. TheCholla

    Go Fast - Balloon theory

    See file in attachment. It's state-of-the-art weather data, don't tell me you're going to dismiss it because you need your 100+ Knots wind at 13000ft. This is not serious.
  11. TheCholla

    Go Fast - Balloon theory

    Average wind means nothing, it depends on the location first, and the weather varies a lot in one location. I've downloaded precise weather data for January 20 and 21 2015. Hourly data from one of the best global weather data reanalysis, ERA5. It's from the UK Met Office...
  12. TheCholla

    Go Fast - Balloon theory

    Sanity check. Reconstruction done in Python using wind, 120 Knots affecting the F-18, 45° left of the F-18 initial heading (same as the Sitrec example above). Every 10 frames, starting at frame 371 when lock is acquired. Using F-18 speed, banking, azimuth/elevation angles, range to the object...
  13. TheCholla

    Go Fast - Balloon theory

    Post in thread '"GO FAST" Footage from Tom DeLonge's To The Stars Academy. Bird? Balloon?' https://www.metabunk.org/threads/go-fast-footage-from-tom-delonges-to-the-stars-academy-bird-balloon.9569/post-220136
  14. TheCholla

    Go Fast - Balloon theory

    I don't see how Sitrec would be way off in the portion where the sim and video are close, in terms of background motion, Az, Vc. But yeah I plan on making my own model accounting for wind. Working on Gimbal for now. What is clear to me is that the models not accounting for wind are somewhat...
  15. TheCholla

    Go Fast - Balloon theory

    No the F-18 needs to face a strong headwind or slight/moderate crosswind to match the background ocean motion. It changes the lines of sight compared to if you neglect the effect of wind. Without wind the motion of the background is too slow. From these new lines of sight, you can check what...
  16. TheCholla

    Go Fast - Balloon theory

    Here it is for January 20, 2015, 21:00 UTC (4pm local EST). If you go in "Control" and click on the calendar icon, you can choose the day. Then the time above. I would have to look at other meteorological data that I don't have now, to see at which height each isobar was, but 700hPa should be...
  17. TheCholla

    Go Fast - Balloon theory

    A few thoughts about the balloon theory for GoFast, focusing on flight path only, and not if a balloon could be a few hundreds miles off the coast at 13000ft. 1) The early 3D reconstructions not accounting for the effect of wind, i.e. just based on Azimuth, Elevation angles, banking of the...
  18. TheCholla

    Gimbal UFO - A New Analysis

    That it did what Graves has described: it stopped and reversed direction as seen on their SA display. And that the object takes a vertical U-turn that follows the rotation in the FLIR video. Which doesn't mean we do not see its IR signature rotating, due to pod roll catching up with the weird...
  19. TheCholla

    Go Fast - Balloon theory

    Isn't it settled that the range in GoFast is an estimate from the ATFLIR, not from a slaved radar track? When I asked Graves, he said that the FLIR generate its own range guesstimate that is very unreliable in air to air combat, only used in air to ground mode (geostationary targets). Precise...
  20. TheCholla

    Why "Racetrack" UFOs are mostly Starlink Flares

    Thoughts about what this pilot says? Source: https://youtu.be/eg4omHBlAGw He says planes hundred of miles away from each other would see it in the same area of the sky. Like if it was outside Earth's orbit.
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