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It has nothing to do with exact time and location, it's about the geometry, angular size and lines of sight. And apparence that shows no exhaust. They themselves say it's difficult to explain.

That's the least debunked in my book. Only the fact that the object is "zipping off" at the end has been explained by the ATFLIR losing lock while Underwood goes through zoom settings. It really depends on what you consider debunked should be. We still don't know what the object was (and I...

The question is really whether they have made detailed calculations to draw their conclusions. It doesn't take much to see Gofast is slow and high at the given range, this was solved a day after release. And have these unofficial sources identified what the Gimbal object is? Those are the real...

I wonder a few things, because caution is warranted both ways. Did they have data we don't have? Did they make detailed analyses ala Sitrec? Did they talk to the pilots? What do they think Gimbal and GoFast are? We all know it's really hard to get a precise speed for GoFast, especially...

There is 99.9% of noise in that field. 0.1% is intriguing. With such a low signal-to-noise ratio it's easy (and natural) to throw it all out the window.

Those bumps in cloud speed seem to be due to the clouds stopping for a few frames when bumps happen just before the step rotations. Here I go frame by frame for the bump at 27s: That explains the dip in cloud speed just before the step rotations. In your cloud speed graph, the peaks right...

Great work, and to me it seems these bumps in the cloud speed slightly precedes the step rotations in the vid. Also, in Sitrec, the close trajectory shows the most significant changes in acceleration during or just before the last three rotations (see pink areas in the acceleration graph below)...

Thanks for the effort Mick, I find it funny Lazarian physics is being discussed on Metabunk. My original idea was to check if a disk/saucer-shaped object could change perspective/size in a way that matches the vid. It would need a combination of your different types of propulsion if that was the...

This idea has recently been proposed by somebody on Twitter, who has supposedly worked for 40 years in the aerospace/defence industry. I cannot verify if his credentials are legit, but he sounds like he knows that stuff. Source...

Nice to see the air track along with the ground track. I recall Edward also proposed radar glitch at some point, to explain how the close path could have been seen by the aviators on radar. I find it difficult to defend a distant plane scenario that is completely unrelated to what's going on...

Just want to share here that close paths for Gimbal do not have to involve freaky or spooky physics. With wind included (roughly facing the object's direction) we can find solutions that exhibit a stop on the SA display, with no sharp vertical U-turn and moderate Gs (0.7G max). The object needs...

I have this to get something that kinda makes sense with what Ryan says. The fleet acceleration is needed to compensate that if real objects, they may have slowed down before and while turning, rather than maintaining constant speed. It looks like this with North Up : EDIT: Note how the...

You have quite an extreme scenario by default. The object speed is very high, and the apparent size decreases by 25%, which is not what we see in the vid. Speed starts at ~400 Knots, and acceleration stays under 1.2G, in the scenario I describe above (Gimbal facing the wind, heading so that...

But you're comparing the rotation of the object to the curve of the ground track, correct? What matters for intrinsic rotation is the curve of the air track (blue). Setting up Sitrec so that Gimbal is facing the wind, with heading that gives an increase in size of ~20% (both parameters that...

There has been discussion about Ryan Graves saying the object stopped on the SA, then rotated. See below. “The wedge formation was flying, let’s call it north, then they turned their return radius right into the other direction, which is how aircraft turn. We have to bite into the air. So they...

Less extreme configuration with more realistic speeds/turn rates. Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rD_Ekbd6c78 (Open the video in Youtube if it's blurry, my video does not upload here) This is what I call the middle-ground scenario, in which the object stops on the SA, but not in the...

Very interesting things when looking at the effect of wind. Here I am focusing on scenarios that take into account what the aviators report. Here is a scenario with the close flight path at ~8Nm, and the 120-knot wind coming from top-right, i.e. facing the object's direction. In this scenario...

He only mentions seeing the tapes from the aircraft that filmed Gimbal. They were busy on other things when it happened and weren't checking the objects on their own instruments.

R. Graves was in the squadron who was training when Gimbal was filmed. It was dark and they were all coming back to the carrier. One F-18 from their team went to check weird radar returns, and got the Gimbal video. After they were back, the whole squadron gathered to watch the tapes (FLIR and...

Will be interested to see which 20-30Nm path you are talking about. This is interesting in regards to the discussion on probability of close versus distant flight paths, if the distant flight path is not extraordinary coincidental anymore (which never really was in my analyses). An additional...