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Just want to add that this extraordinary coincidence goes both ways : how could two fighter jets 35Nm apart, with one randomly flying away unidentified, move both in a way that mimics the close trajectory of a bogus radar return that stopped/reversed direction on the SA? See, I cannot discard...

Your explanations on glare are very detailed, but frankly they are just speculations on how a glare would behave in those systems. You can make all sort of theories like this to explain what we observe, but without evidence or backing by a real expert, it's just speculations. At the end of...

I'm talking about the contour. It's a well-defined shape all along, unlike the spiky glare in your example. Or the jittery Chilean UFO. But as pointed out in the OP, the shape gradually changes, and it is unclear why it does in that manner.

Yes that's about the same ratio of source vs glare. Now this is a very bright source straight in the lense. Look at how the glare is extremely dependent on the angle of incidence, in this little clip from your video posted above. And here is the start and ~end tail angle for the flight path...

Looks like the moon was near horizon at 9:15pm in Calvine, on August 4th 1990 (Time is PST time from my PC, add 8 hours for Scotland-> 9:15pm).

Another processed version that highlights the "circle" (from Reddit)

I know all this. But putting a distant fighter jet >30Nm and the IR blob in Gimbal in perspective has not really been done. I'm not sure many people realize how weird the IR signature would have been this day, when compared to ATFLIR examples we have. Another puzzling fact, to add with reports...

You just make discussion difficult. Spoofing has been mentioned above to narrow the possibilities for a jet, not by me. The point I raise is whether the shape is without no doubt consistent with a jet at 30Nm or more, given how tiny it would be in the frame.

Why repeating the same stuff over and over, we've had this discussion here : https://www.metabunk.org/threads/recreating-the-gimbals-fleet-on-the-sa-page-with-sitrec.12431/post-273297 This is about the shape of Gimbal.

After the pod (supposedly) rolled at the end, the distant jet would have been seen like this in ATFLIR, until next roll. Does such disconnection between the shape of the hot source and IR blob even make sense? Any example anywhere?

Here it is with a F-18 to scale (Mick did that). One circle (one engine) would be about the F-18 wingspan. Here is what you need in Gimbal at 30Nm, with a F-18 more or less to scale for that distance/FOV (even smaller at 35 or 40Nm) : It's more three times the wingspan here, in a more recent...

The video is 480 pixels high if I got it correct. 0.35° FOV shows 1300ft each side at 35Nm (tan(0.35)*35*6076.12) Divide by 480 pixels, one pixel represents ~2.7ft It's about the diameter of one F-18 exhaust. So here we would have two hot pixels creating a glare that covers ~10% of the FOV at...

It's important to realize how small a F-18 is at 30-40Nm, when seen in ATFLIR, even with NAR2 zoom (0.35 FOV). A 56 ft F-18 is barely visible at that distance, here is an example from Sitrec at 35Nm. I switch back and forth with the glare to show how huge it would have to be compared to the...

To further explore this case? Unless you're settled on the glare from a jet and it's all explained? I'm not. It's a thread about the shape of Gimbal and how it changes, are we allowed to discuss different possibilities?

That's assuming the final shape, when it's in front of the F-18, is close to the shape of the object. The shape before that is not inconsistent with a slight tilt along the close flight path (my post above).

I think this belongs in this thread, with the following question: is the change in shape consistent with what we would expect from a physical object at ~10Nm, traveling along the "Graves" trajectory? (from a pragmatic point of view, putting aside the saucer shape, aliens etc etc)

The problem is that tail angle shows very small changes in the ~30Nm flight paths. A way to get a more significant change in tail angle is to go a bit further, at ~40Nm, but this implies a significant change in direction. Along with other questions that are size of the glare (~90ft equivalent...

I did my own extraction of cloud angles/banking (every 10 frames), I get this plot when comparing Clouds angle and predicted clouds angle, with jet pitch=3.6 (from the horizon formula). Its close to the graph of logicbear above (I have my angles positive versus negative, just a display thing)...

Could pitch explain the difference here? What pitch do you need to explain the difference in predicted clouds angle, versus what we observe? jetPitch = (ObservedCloudAngle - (jetRoll*cos(abs(radians(az)))) / sin(abs(radians(az))) Also in this equation jetPitch is relative to elevation of the...

I would agree with this if the image (the clouds) was closely rotating with sudden changes in banking. But it's not the case over the first 24s. See below this graph by logicbear. Only at 20s we more clearly see an impact of banking in the clouds angle. Which makes sense as banking gets clearer...