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Where does the left turn comes from? Edward's 10 Nm trajectory does not turn to the left. In my model, trajectories within 10Nm do not have to turn to the left to follow the lines of sight (and I pay attention to have a spherical layers of distant clouds to stay in the FOV). Within 10Nm the...

Our point is the following : that Ryan Graves would give a description like this, that matches so well the close-range potential trajectories, while the target was in fact a glare from a distant plane, would be an extraordinary coincidence. Except if assuming pilots lying, or very bizarre...

Source for Ryan Graves describing the slowdown/stop/reverse of direction : the article above, a clip from Unidentified, this talk for AIAA, some tweets, personal communication. Source: https://youtu.be/8R34a9_sRKQ?t=1051 He's also said that he may not have realized that the object did not...

I know I won't be well received around here as I am on Marik's side. But I want to suggest that the observables are not the main points of contention. Really what has tipped the scale for me, and others, is that the close trajectory described by the pilots is right there, in the lines of sight...

I don't know. But my model does not use the clouds as a primary source of data, I'm using the old-school method of constructing turn circles/tangents. I reckon it has some large uncertainties, but to the point of finding a difference of speed of 100 Knots, in two segments that have constant...

From your README, your reconstruction is primarily based on the cloud motion, is what I understand. "The idea of this simulation is to recreate the F-18’s flight path from the movement of the clouds rather than the banking data, and put a camera on the aircraft and actually shoot a simulated...

@Edward Current , would you say that in order to be precise in the lines of sight you retrieve, your simulation needs to be very accurate in how the clouds are represented, compared to the original video? Because the clouds is all the data you use to reconstruct the paths. How do you measure...

Thanks, got it. In the end, what is your explanation for the lowering of the clouds, in your scenario? I still don't get how two planes flying leveled and staying at roughly similar distances, would create this lowering of the clouds, especially with the flat cloud cover you have in your...

Is there a way to extract the coordinates from your F18 and 30Nm plane, so we can compare the trajectories across different models? In a tabler for example, that would be very helpful.

Got it, distances are in meter in your model, makes sense now.

@Edward Current , do all your reconstructions include a steady speed of 360knots for the F-18? And a constant 25000ft elevation? And unit from your Blender is mile, not Nm, correct ?

What do you want me to say? I wasn't there in the plane, I don't know if instruments on board gave the range. But they say they had it, who else knows better than them. When I say I made my point, it's about the original question Eddie asked : which scenario is the most likely? The discussion...

I'm not going into this again. I said "F-18 seemingly pointing to a range within 10Nm", as confirmed by the weapon system officer who was in the F-18 during the encounter, and Ryan Graves on Twitter. The close-object scenario reflects the trajectory they describe, that the range they got was...

Note that he says that they ended up at a 6-8Nm distance from the object, "before too close for comfort in low visibility". At the beginning they are further away. Starting at 10Nm my trajectory ends at 7.5 Nm, in the range he gives. Like I said above, how one interprets this is up to his/her...

I'm glad that we refined it to two possible solutions. I feel like we are close to solving the case for good. To me, we are left with the choice between two extraordinary scenarios : 1) A distant unregistered plane that is mistaken as a U-shaped close trajectory by the pilots, with a wrong...

@sitarzan , yes I don't care, my name is Yannick Peings, you can easily find what I do if you google me. I work in science, not really related to this though, so I'm not an expert at all. Just doing a little geometry on my free time, like many here. And I really don't give a damn about reddit...

To put an end to my analysis of Gimbal, here is how a close trajectory looks like in my model, within a 10 Nm range. In this example the object starts at 10Nm, and ends up at 7.5 Nm. G1 to G5 are positions of the object at 1/10/21/31/34s, respectively. Speed goes from 170, to 120, to 27, to...

FYI, here is the trajectory of the F-18 in my Geogebra reconstructions, overlaid with the one from Edward Current. Mine is shown by points 1 to 5, Edward's trajectory is the yellow curve. They are very very close.

I'm really tired of the constant hostility in the comments, so I'll leave it there. Discussion is impossible. What about your analyses, are they free of any error ? Can you retrieve the exact object and F18 trajectories with a 0.01°/s precision by estimating them from the cloud motion?

@Leonardo Cuellar , where do you get this data from ? Remember the data I discuss is hourly wind average, so with 90Knots in average you may very well have wind gusts at 120 Knots. Jan 21, morning UTC, is the time when there were strong westerly winds in the 120 Knots range off Jacksonville...