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Ah. So if they're not independent then the probability is always 5% no matter how many events occur? I thought FatPhil was questioning the maths, rather than the dependence/indepence. Perhaps his post could have used a little more detail/explanation? ;) For example: Doesn't seem to help.

Is it not worked out like this? (Just five hundred independent 5% probabilities.) = "almost certain" Agree.

Absolutely right. That BI article went with: And if you're part of "an average American family" you're probably reading that and thinking "the hell we do!" "An American family has an average net worth of" might have been a better way to put it. But as Courgette points out, mean in this case...

And even more surprising how some people don't understand that "most common" doesn't mean "average". The Wall Street Journal posted an article on the differences and why some might feel mode is a better measure than mean, including the effect California has, currently adding about an extra...

Talking of Nimitz, I recently came across this (what I assume to be) excellent detailed summary: https://somerandomstuff1.wordpress.com/2021/07/15/the-nimitz-tic-tac-encounter-the-ultimate-guide-and-analysis/#inconsistencies-and-uncertainties-in-the-radar-accounts Of particular interest to me...

On October 27th, 2022 US president Joe Biden claimed that "the most common price of gas in America is $3.39, down from over $5 when I took office." This has been soundly debunked on many places across the 'net, including at CNN: The most common price for a gallon of regular gas on the day he...

Here's an extract from a BBC article on the so-called 'Dreamachine' designed to get people hallucinating without drugs: In the Dreamachine, the orange and blue colours start to overlap, and after a few minutes I notice that I'm seeing stripes and criss-cross patterns. These kinds of effects...

At the hearing in May, the Pentagon declassified the conclusions about two separate images of ghostly green triangles recorded in two incidents, one on the East Coast and one on the West. Officials testified publicly that the green triangles were actually drones, with a trick of the camera lens...

I'm not aware of anything bigger than the 22MB tiff: Source: https://drive.google.com/file/d/1FCOQiQKciRJsZ4pm26hdrFuVv1uzMk-k/view Not that it makes much difference from the smaller one, so going bigger than that probably won't help either. Cold case unless one or both of the witnesses come...

Not really. A Gish gallop is "a rhetorical technique in which a person in a debate attempts to overwhelm their opponent by providing an excessive number of arguments with no regard for the accuracy or strength of those arguments." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gish_gallop Bill isn't in a...

Hi Bill, and welcome. My main thought is that it's nice to see a UFO believer here - and especially one who seems as balanced and appreciative of the work Mick and others do as yourself. It should be interesting for all. As for belief in UFOs, personally I've yet to see anything I would...

There's a subforum called "Elections" whose description is "investigating and debunking disinformation regarding the 2020 US elections. Is that description a bit out of date now? Could it be expanded to other US elections or elections in general? Or maybe even politics?

I got curious about this and wondered if it might be possible that there would still be a few stragglers in the San Antonio area in mid-October. So I emailed Molly Keck - an Integrated Pest Management Program Specialist with Texas A&M AgriLife in San Antonio and Board Certified Entomologist (and...

Not quite right. Whether chefs or dishwashers we're not 100% sure, and they are said to have been walking on a hill with just a few trees rather than in the woods. Also, the file isn't classified, it was released in 2013 - though the names and addresses of the people in it (not just for Calvine...

Sounds like you're more clued in than me but I would guess other countries have similar numbers of spotters, enthusiasts and magazines. For example, according to a database of worldwide aviation magazines the Dutch have 3 monthly news-stand magazines, while France has 9 and the UK has 8, plus...

Something interesting - here are the average sightings per month in the Netherlands: Which would seem to confirm the hypothesis that reports are more likely to be made during the summer when people are outside more and there are more visitors. Likewise with the US: NB: Neither chart...

And another - here's the Dutch UFO reporting centre: https://ufomeldpunt.nl/ Over the same time period NUFORC recorded about 64,000 US sightings. US population in midpoint of 2016: 323 million Netherlands population (2016): 17 million The US has 19 times the population of the Netherlands...

Looking again at another nation-to-nation comparison. NUFORC reports for first eleven months of 2009: 4,724 Subtract 12.5% (estimated) for non-US reports: 4,134 UK Ministry of Defence reports for same period: 642 US population (2009): 306.8 million UK population (2009): 62.3 million The US...

It's a good point (included in my original list of factors) and could definitely skew things. Perhaps visitors are even more likely to see something (fresh eyes, excited tourists, etc). We could adjust the population numbers by adding number of visitors divided by average length of visit for a...

I have a copy I can share with you if you like.