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I'm wondering if this sighting was some sort of flare event. We know that reddish flares are used on occasion, as seen at Twenty-Nine palms. The flare event at Twenty-Nine palms was very roughly football-field sized.

One theory explored here on Metabunk is that the 'tic-tac' was actually significantly smaller than Fravor realised, so its apparent movement was affected by parallax-related effects. The parallax theory might be contradicted by the account of the other pilot witness (Dietrich) who said that...

I did ask a question earlier about Graves' status as a direct witness. He almost always talks in the plural ('we' saw this, and 'we' saw that). Is there any particular event which he claims to have seen himself?

If this is a single witness account it isn't very impressive, since there appear to be no photos, film clips or radar detections available, and it only lasted 45 seconds. In that short period, I have strong doubts that the witness could even make an accurate assessment of its size or distance. I...

Some people Grusch may have talked to really have been involved in a wide array of CIA programs and scientific research efforts, so they would be in a position to provide plenty of documentation about those programs. In all probability none of their work has involved actual alien technology or...

That kind of assumes that these programs ever existed in the first place. I'm certainly prepared to believe that Grusch is entirely honest and sincere in his beliefs concerning these retrieval programs, but it seems entirely possible that the information he has about them is faulty. Even if...

That's right. https://www.metabunk.org/threads/statement-by-aaro-head-sean-kirkpatrick-on-the-hoc-uap-hearing.13069/post-295597

According to Kirkpatrick, he didn't work for the AARO.

Grusch didn't work with AARO? Interesting. I understand he worked with, rather than for, the Unidentified Aerial Phenomena Task Force, which was the predecessor of the AARO. Is that a mistake, too? Sometimes the acronym salad gets a bit confusing.

DNA analysis should be able to tell if a sample has alien provenance or not. No alien species anywhere in the visible universe is likely to be identical genetically to a human being.* Admittedly a true alien lifeform might not use DNA as such: there may be some other form of data-carrying...

And my apologies if this has been posted before; the opening and closing statements by Fravor, Graves and Grusch. https://oversight.house.gov/wp-content/uploads/2023/07/David-Fravor-Statement-for-House-Oversight-Committee.pdf...

Two points define a line. Three points define a triangle. Every triangle in three-dimensional space can be rotated to form a straight line.

A line of three dots is a triangle seen from the side.

The Nimitz witnesses presumably all saw the Underwood FLIR1 clip, that shows a white, featureless, elongated blob like a tic-tac; this may have coloured their subsequent recollection of its shape.

It is in the link you posted. https://www.cia.gov/readingroom/docs/NSA-RDP96X00790R000100010041-2.pdf Perhaps everything magical the Soviets did (if anything) could be classified as 'black magic', since they were the Axis of Evil; but they probably didn't see it that way.

Fascinating, and terrifying that the US and the USSR should both be sidetracked down such a dead-end track. The Soviets were investigating black magic, too; but what makes black magic black? If magic could be used for good, then it surely would be white magic.

Perhaps. We really don't have much data to confirm this. It sounds more like a back-of-the-envelope calculation rather than a reliable estimate.

My suggestion in the earlier thread was that 1/2 of all unexplained UFO reports may have been caused by spy planes and reconnaissance plane testing. According to Gerald Haines in the article quoted earlier; https://sgp.fas.org/library/ciaufo.html#rft45 So in 1956, 96% of UFO sightings...

Dark contrails might be in shadow, if the sun has recently set.

Option b/ seems the most likely here. The lawmakers in Congress may have seen no particularly convincing evidence, but they've heard a lot of rumours, and they believe that suitable legislation will flush this evidence out. This belief may be a false hope, especially if the rumours are just...