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That is correct, and I am disappointed that the AARO report perpetuates this myth. There may have been a slight uptick in reports caused by experimental aircraft (and presumably also by rocket launches) but those reports would be almost completely subsumed by much more mundane phenomena...

This is all very interesting, and thanks for your efforts, but the whole premise is completely flawed. Maybe 95% of all UFO reports can be explained using relatively mundane phenomena, such as Venus, Jupiter, Sirius, meteors, contrails, distant aircraft, birds, parhelia, balloons; the number...

Concerning peer review, surely a scientific report can be peer-reviewed without being publicly released? I'm sure there is a procedure that could allow this to happen. The reviewers can be given security clearance of some sort. None of this suggests that the reports will never be released; but...

There is some new detail here, which is interesting. The sample was mostly magnesium, and the bismuth does not occur in pure layers (this contradicts earlier analyses). Also, an origin is suggested ('possibly of USAF origin'), which raises interesting possibilities. Maybe the sample was...

The next paragraph in the report implies that they did do some analysis. I'd like to see that analysis. Perhaps, one day, we will.

The other aspect is that the Elgin phenomena were sighted at 16,000 feet, too high for chinese lanterns, I think. Recreational hot air balloons rarely fly above 3000 feet, so they can probably be eliminated too. But hobbyist balloons do sometimes fly this high, so maybe that option is still open.

Everything about the Caversham sighting screams chinese lanterns to me. Orange light, then grey when the light goes out. I've seen chinese lanterns after the fire burns out - they look greyish or colourless in the ambient light from streetlights. Several objects following each other at...

I find it difficult to believe that anyone is in doubt about the Phoenix lights after all this time. The answer is even given in Wiki. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Phoenix_Lights#Explanations Are you calling them a 'lair'?

There may be balloons flying at very high altitudes that have very dim or infrequent flashing lights. Some hobbyist's balloons fly quite high, and they might not flash very frequently, if at all. High altitude, nearly stationary balloons might be useful for certain commercial and government...

That's right. A rotating satellite would presumably be one in some kind of failure mode, or performing some other manoeuvre.

That's right. I am reminded of two different encounters with balloons, both very similar in characteristics; Scott Kelly flew past a UAP (reported by his back seat RIO) so he turned back to take another look and discovered it was a Bart Simpson balloon. In the second incident, another pilot...

I doubt it too, but here we have a repeating phenomenon near the equatorial geostationary band, which could be a very high balloon with a light on a ten-second repeat cycle, or a geostationary satellite flashing every ten seconds. Perhaps it was rotating on a ten-second cycle. The orbital...

No, but they are visible occasionally. Usually the visible flare lasts longer than a single frame, though.

I would think so too, but if the satellite stayed in the same location for more than a few seconds it would need to be geostationary. Incidentally, the blinking light was almost exactly on the celestial equator, which is exactly consistent with a geostationary satellite. On the other hand...

I'm unsure how the anonymous drone operator arrived at the conclusion that is object was 40 miles away. It may be much closer and smaller. But if it is on the ground it must be a fairly large object; several hundred metres long, perhaps. However it is not as 'tall' as the drone operator...

This might be a very high aircraft moving slowly, a geostationary satellite catching the sunlight, or (as Duke suggested) a balloon with a strobe light. Two flashes in 20 seconds is very slow. I would suggest a 'hot pixel' or electronic glitch, but you say you saw it visually as well.

Ah, yes. I see it now. The light only appears in two frames. I've made a star map; there is no star in that location.

I'm fairly sure this is just an ordinary star, possibly 57 or 48 Eridani, which is becoming visible temporarily as the visibility changes. Can you isolate one frame where the light appears and put a ring round it?

I'm not clear on how the drone operators determined the distance from the drone to the UAP. If it is closer than they think, it is smaller. A smallish blimp of some sort. The Russians have been using balloons in this theatre of war. If it is further away, it may be a reflection on the ground...

We should be aware that the Phoenix lights event was in fact two separate events, one at 20:00 in the evening (actually starting at about 19:55) which was probably planes flying in formation, and a second event at about 22:00 that was probably distant flares. These two events may or may not...