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  1. Mendel

    House Oversight Hearing on UAPs - July 26, 2023

    When was Grusch stripped of his clearances? I don't recall him claiming that. https://www.metabunk.org/threads/david-gruschs-dopsr-cleared-statement-and-ig-complaint.12989/
  2. Mendel

    Has any UFOlogist managed to explain the crash rate of these UFOs?

    Yes. The argument being made here is this: * assume all UFO reports are true * assume UFOs crash at a rate comparable to aircraft * then, with 12 crashed craft (as per Grusch), we should have more UFO sightings There's something wrong with each of these 3 steps, including the last one which...
  3. Mendel

    House Oversight Hearing on UAPs - July 26, 2023

    As noted by Mick at https://www.metabunk.org/threads/david-grusch-whistleblower-claims-u-s-has-retrieved-craft-and-bodies-of-non-human-origin.12977/page-3#post-291315 when Grusch's first interview came out. Discussion including sources continues intermittently onto the next forum page. I was...
  4. Mendel

    House Oversight Hearing on UAPs - July 26, 2023

    He said he wanted to be an "opinion leader" in his first TV interview. But neither he nor his messaging is suitable to lead opinion.
  5. Mendel

    House Oversight Hearing on UAPs - July 26, 2023

    Grusch testified that Congress already has that information. From https://www.rev.com/blog/transcripts/house-holds-hearing-on-ufos-and-government-transparency-transcript/amp : On UAP possession:I know the exact locations and those locations were provided to the Inspector General and some of...
  6. Mendel

    Ross Coulthart Shows Patch Claimed of "Reverse Engineering Program at Area 51"

    Well, this is a story he told on his podcast and at a talk, it's not printed or broadcast.
  7. Mendel

    House Oversight Hearing on UAPs - July 26, 2023

    This is not the right thread for this; and as far as you're calling for speculation, this isn't even the right forum. If you'd like to discuss this in-depth, please create a new thread. Evidence supporting the notion: • Stratton not going up the chain of command when he should have • Cui bono...
  8. Mendel

    Has any UFOlogist managed to explain the crash rate of these UFOs?

    That's the point, though: if we expect 0.2% crashes per sighting, then everything's fine; if we expect 0.035% crashes per sighting (as per @landout365 's second post), we have to wonder why we're spotting so few trips, or why there are so many crashes. We definitely don't know how many miles...
  9. Mendel

    Episode 57: Alex Dietrich: Clouds, Critical Thinking, and UFOs

    Fair point. Air traffic control on the Nimitz should've been aware (but mistakes happen).
  10. Mendel

    Has any UFOlogist managed to explain the crash rate of these UFOs?

    Have I missed the point? You cut your quote of my post right before this: And then there's this: Approach and landing is the highest risk phase of flight, accounting for over 50 percent of all accidents at every level of aviation. Many types of accidents can happen during the approach and...
  11. Mendel

    UAPs, Bigelow, and the "Invisible College"

    Putting this here for reference on Mellon/Stratton/Elizondo It's in the light of this that we have to consider that Stratton sent Grusch out to find UAP-related SAP and CAPs for UAPTF, and when Grusch didn't find any, he went public with allegations about the programs he wasn't given access...
  12. Mendel

    House Oversight Hearing on UAPs - July 26, 2023

    Jay Stratton's "boss" would've been the Under Secretary of Defense for Intelligence and Security, right? kinda hard to imagine there were SAPs and CAPs unknown to that office
  13. Mendel

    Has any UFOlogist managed to explain the crash rate of these UFOs?

    • the aliens actually know far advanced tech, but construct their "contact craft" from retro tech as to not reveal their technological advantage to use, and to keep us from reverse-engineering their technology. But over time, they've lost the skills to employ these older technologies safely.
  14. Mendel

    Ross Coulthart Shows Patch Claimed of "Reverse Engineering Program at Area 51"

    That would be sad if it didn't also describe Grusch's HOC testimony.
  15. Mendel

    What kind of aircraft displays these kind of lights?

    That would be best, but with @Quirky Lantern 's offset, we can do it loosely without that. Trailspotter's "blue star" on the Rock Hill solution gives 02:19:50 UTC, so the clock would need to be 3 minutes fast. You can generally only make a confident statement like this after the fact if you...
  16. Mendel

    What kind of aircraft displays these kind of lights?

    So, since he gave 21:18 as the time for the video, if that corresponds to the start of the clip, the camera clock would be more than a minute fast on August 14, since it was 21:16:49 when he started. Hmmm. The camera clock showed 9:23 at the start of this clip, on August 25, so it could've...
  17. Mendel

    "It moved in a way that defies the laws of physics. Couldn't possibly be man made..."

    Three lights in a triangle (any triangle), and ufo believers will pronounce it an "equilateral triangle" and claim it's a UFO. (the post on reddit where I saw this has since been deleted)
  18. Mendel

    House Oversight Hearing on UAPs - July 26, 2023

    To me, there's a nonzero chance that this is a foreign intelligence operation.
  19. Mendel

    Ross Coulthart Shows Patch Claimed of "Reverse Engineering Program at Area 51"

    You seem to be under the impression that our information contradicts Coulthart's, but it doesn't. The Dreamland forum confirmed that the alleged great-uncle's alleged patch originates from an EG&G group working at area 51 (and they have a picture of another patch to prove it, plus a plausible...
  20. Mendel

    Episode 57: Alex Dietrich: Clouds, Critical Thinking, and UFOs

    Jet causing a shockwave? Common knowledge, I hope. Even boats have a bow wave. The balloon would have to be close to bursting already, and the local excess pressure from the wave should do it. If it's a spy balloon with an explosive self-destruct device, it might have reacted to Fravor's radar?
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