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that's not the same scenario, statistically to get the same chance, you need to • pick a person from the Upper West Side at random (the lab worker) • pick a city block in Brooklyn at random (the market workers) • check if they've had close contact in the past week (while infectious) If you...

My point is that the chance for a specific person from the Upper West Side to have had close contact with any person from a specific block in Brooklyn last week is quite small. But that's the kind of chance the lab leak scenario requires: the infectious lab worker must have infected a market...

Here's what I'm moderately confident of: 1. There's a SARS-CoV-2 precursor somewhere in the wild in southeast Asia. If you look at the map below, the further South you go, the closer the match is. 2. The virus easily jumps from bats to pangolins. Look for the pangolin silhouttes in this...

that fits my NYC comparison, with Brooklyn being across the river as well. But let's say the GOP narrative is true: • there was a biosecurity breach (very circumstantial evidence) • a WIV employed got infected (no evidence) • they travelled around Wuhan infectiously (possible because Covid can...

yes, but there's even less evidence for that, AFAIK. The one that gets cited where the WIV was involved was actually performed at Chapel Hill. And then both the research and the origin viruses have to match the "escaped" virus, there's no "magic" that suddenly makes the RaTG13 RNA match...

These questions are linked. For example, the knowledge that MERS comes from dromedary camels is very helpful in keeping it from spreading in the future. If a virus lab collects a virus in the wild and keeps it secret, and then that virus escapes, all they have to do is send another expedition...

As expected of a random process with small numbers. But when they're invested in claiming it's not random, they're not going to describe it like that.

Excerpts: The IC pursued three separate lines of inquiry: the first encompassed work determining whether available data points to the involvement of a foreign adversary in the incidents; the second focused on the feasibility and existence of deliberate mechanisms that an adversary might use...

that's another thing that's bewildering me, because "8 miles" to me is like "4 villages over", as relates to the older WIV campus (the newer campus is 18 miles away). it's only "right around" if your scale is Texas, not a densely populated city. In NYC terms, it's like saying the Upper West...

angles can be measured in radians by equating an angle with the length of the subtended arc of a unit circle. that means, if you know the length of an arc with respect to the radius, or with respect to the full circumference of the circle, you can figure out the angle as a proportion. Since the...

yes, but in that case they'd have found the zoonotic origin by now (because they'd know where to look)

Today [10.27.2022], the Senate Health, Education, Labor and Pensions (HELP) Committee Minority oversight staff released an interim report titled, “An Analysis of the Origins of the COVID-19 Pandemic.” The interim staff report summarizes a review to date of publicly available, open-source...

the general argument goes like this: a) the aliens are constrained by the rules of physics b) these rules don't allow them to be here c) therefore, they're not this works the same whether you apply it to space travel, time travel, or "inter-dimensional" travel. if you accept it, you can...

could also be the observer moving; if I move closer to two stationary lights, they'll seem to move apart. But their size would change correspondingly.

Two sources said that the Department of Energy assessed in the intelligence report that it had "low confidence" the Covid-19 virus accidentally escaped from a lab in Wuhan. Intelligence agencies can make assessments with either low, medium or high confidence. A low confidence assessment...

it's a misquote "The FBI has for quite some time now assessed that the origins of the pandemic are most likely a potential lab incident in Wuhan," he said. Wray's comments came after a report in the Wall Street Journal, not independently confirmed by ABC News, that a new Department of Energy...

it looks like reflections of incandescent light bulbs to me, with the arc of the filament showing inside the circle. the "elongation" appears to be motion blur.

from the comments by https://www.reddit.com/user/markron77/ : full file (hopefully not compressed) https://www.dropbox.com/s/gys90dzsfmfx037/IMG_7113.MOV?dl=0 Well it definitely didn’t in this case because the time says 7:53 but we landed 30 minutes later and it was 11:30 PM. Now that I watch...

Republican Christopher Wray was appointed by Trump as Comey's successor, after he had worked for the DOJ during George W. Bush's first term. The FBI's job is to look for perpetrators, so absent actual evidence, I believe this is a "if all you have is a hammer, everything looks like a nail"...