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The big item missing is that there's no statement from China. If this was a research balloon, they'd be able to produce the project manager and a rough data sheet on the equipment aboard the balloon.

I'd be surprised if there weren't, civilian satellites have them. If I was operating a HAP, I'd want to be able to get it above a volcano about to erupt and send me footage, for example—a LEO satellite couldn't do it continuously, and a geosynchronous satellite would have a worse resolution...

Or the source had access to a message archive on the operation. That's all Chelsea (née Bradley) Manning had, for example, or Edward Snowdon. Remember also that a few of these facts are already public knowledge and have been posted here previously. This is why it's hard to distinguish this...

Modern balloons use air as ballast: A ballonet is an air bag inside the outer envelope of an airship which, when inflated, reduces the volume available for the lifting gas, making it more dense. Because air is also denser than the lifting gas, inflating the ballonet reduces the overall lift...

my transistor radio is "electronic surveillance technology capable of monitoring US communications" ;) Here's more from the same source (the official transcript isn't up yet, I think): The officials told lawmakers that the US has assessed that little new intelligence was gleaned by the Chinese...

This ought to be findable/have been found by Sweden's hydrophone network. There ought to also be a 4th charge that didn't go off, which might have been removed subsequently?

Highly excerpted, I recommend reading the full story: How America Took Out The Nord Stream PipelineLast June, the Navy divers, operating under the cover of a widely publicized mid-summer NATO exercise known as BALTOPS 22, planted the remotely triggered explosives that, three months later...

It's easy to think that this was the same type of balloon, but there's no evidence for that. One would wish for a rehearsal of some sort. The problem is also that the best means to bring the balloon down turned out to be an air-to-air missile, and the capture aircraft would then have to be on...

I quoted some press briefings above that confirm that newspaper report, but obviously that's the same source. NORAD apparently doesn't rate these things as threats, balloons are very slow so the computer analysis might just be programmed to throw the data out. PRC government surveillance...

If this is a "weather balloon", it'd best be called a high-altitude platform, designed to stay aloft for months. The bulk of the payload would be the solar panels and batteries, and the engine. At 20 km altitude, it has a 500 km horizon, and could be controlled from the ground or a geostationary...

... that they were unprepared and couldn't set this up in a hurry. This thing is pretty big.

Specifically, an ERJ. These are 86 to 98 ft (26 to 30 m) long. For comparison, each of the eight solar arrays on the International Space Station is 112 feet long by 39 feet wide. A Starlink satellite solar panel is about 30 ft long and 10 ft wide. At 20,000 m altitude, the air density is...

Excerpts from DoD press briefing transcripts: Pentagon Press Secretary Brig. Gen. Pat Ryder Holds an On-Camera Press Briefing Feb. 3, 2023 Q: General, you said the balloon is maneuverable. So do — does that mean that it's not drifting? GEN. RYDER: So the balloon is maneuverable. Clearly...

Technically true, but incomplete. 1. A "spy plane" pilot would be wearing their own uniform, and the aircraft wouldn't be "disguised" either, so for purposes of the rules of war, they wouldn't actually be spying. They'd be conducting reconnaissance. 2. There are rules governing spies: A spy...

I wonder about some facts. If the Chinese knew where the balloon was, and were capable of controlling it, then they should've notified civil air traffic control, as far as I understand the relevant regulations. It seems that they did not do that. If China had lost track of the balloon, I'd...

I'm adding this note on weather balloon tracking sites here to make it more findable.

Yes. A prominent example is the August 4, 1964, attack on the USS Maddox (2nd half of the Gulf of Tonkin incident). Or the 'WMD in Iraq' bit. It's always ok to look for evidence.

What balloon track are you talking about? The one in post #13 https://www.metabunk.org/threads/is-this-a-chinese-spy-balloon.12858/post-287111 is supposedly based on actual wind data.

Footage posted on February 1 notably shows alleged Russian forces disguised as Ukrainian infantry attacking Ukrainian positions near Bilohorivka.[29] If Russian forces dressed in Ukrainian uniforms attacked Ukrainian positions, it would be a violation of the Geneva Convention on war crimes...

where did you see that mentioned, I must've missed it? if they planned for a weather balloon to never leave Chinese territory, they wouldn't tell "everyone". if it got blown off the mainland and onto the Pacific Ocean, they'd probably give it up as lost, and not tell anyone. you notice the DoD...