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I'm not going to agree to disagree with someone who doesn't understand the science. You're still mixing up behaviors and effects, which is a fundamental error. That's too bad.

Other major sources of stress for the society as a whole: -Number one: The housing shortage -The rise of the part time job and the gig economy with no benefits or job security... or job satisfaction. Help me out here. Give some more examples.

Once again it's an aggressive behavior. The behavior and the result of the behavior shouldn't be confused. Humans aren't hens. No... but neither is most human behavior based in System 2 thinking. Gaslighting is a proximal behavior that may or may not have the distal effect of shaping some...

Factors that make the U.S. a different kind of place. -The U.S. had a revolution that was based on an ideology which was new and radical. In Europe allegiance to, or opposition to a particular royal family, or to a particular religion had been the main issue. In America, a humanist ideology...

I disagree. Gaslighting is an aggressive behavior that does not arise from System 2 thinking. Some people may engage System 2 and recognize what they are doing, but that doesn't mean all people who engage in this aggressive behavior consciously plan their behavior. Case in point. Children...

To expand on this... The issues include: - Response bias Including "I don't know" (DK) in survey questions can influence responses because of the way people feel about the social situation. Respondents might choose DK to avoid providing a "wrong" answer, especially in socially desirable...

Yes. I did. Do I know about the stock market? Yes... in detail. But that has no predictive power for the general population. This poorly written article doesn't even give us a breakdown on how the different populations answered the stock market question. The earlier article did. What...

Sadly, this article is badly deficient in its reporting on the poll... which was commissioned by the Guardian itself. There isn't even a link to the poll... that I can find. (To boot, this reporter has an unclear writing style. For example, more than once she writes "inflation" when it...

Getting back to the topic... Let me put it this way. Instead of a question on a poll, let's make this a question on a game show. Host: For ten thousand dollars... Is the stock market up this year or down? How many of those 49% would slam the big red button and shout "Down!" ?

Let's focus on one question... Unlike other questions, such as inflation or unemployment rate, there are no nuances. It's not a matter of interpretation. -This question doesn't have any ambiguity to it. It's either yes or no. It's a market place. (I suppose there could be some people who...

This seems to be devolving into bickering. My point is that the 13 Keys to the white house system can be vulnerable to wild cards that lie outside of the norms.

The issue of voter suppression during the 2000 U.S. presidential election in Florida has been widely documented and analyzed. Reports highlighted several key issues: Purging Voter Rolls: A significant number of voters, particularly African Americans, were erroneously purged from voter rolls...

But not the Kennedy election fraud in Illinois?

1988 election: GHW Bush had these keys going his way: No primary contest: There is no serious contest for the incumbent party nomination. Bush got more than twice the delegates that Dole and Robertson did combined. No contest. Strong short-term economy: The economy is not in recession during...

I don't think any of those things were really meaningful. Those elections broke the way they were always going to break. People just looked for a reason that seems meaningful. Those elections were either predicted by the 13 Keys to the White House System or can be given a post hoc prediction...

Is it really necessary, though? "Early polls are meaningful" is in the category of Flat Earth.

Okay "I think early polls are meaningful and useful." - A guy on TV Are you really asking for something like that? What are you asking for? I'm not sure.

In my opinion Allan Lichtman's 13 Keys to the White House system has done a lot better job of minimizing systematic error. His basic argument is that elections are primarily decided by voter perceptions of how well the incumbent party has governed. (A question I would like to ask Lichtman is...

Let's clarify the issue. And remember that I'm addressing one factor that I think is underappreciated or not even recognized. My issue with this article: https://abcnews.go.com/538/trump-leading-polls-plenty-time-biden-catch/story?id=108062780 This attitude is expressed: Early polls are poor...

That article contains a commonly expressed fallacy. This is the "snapshot fallacy." (A neologism I just made up.) This is the way things would go if the election were held today, but we have to recognize that this poll is just a snapshot in time. The assumption is that early polls fail solely...