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The games at carnivals seem a better metaphor. When you do get a prize it turns out to be made of foil wrapped around grass clippings.

In my opinion this is an example of the Witness Variability Fallacy. See post 134 The Selection Effect is also important in this case. We're getting the wildest misperceptions but very few reports of the accurate perceptions. These are related, of course. As mentioned earlier in this...

We've gone back to square one when it comes to the Solid Citizen Fallacy, the Trained Observer Fallacy, the Anecdotal Report Fallacy, The Witness Variability Fallacy and The Selection Effect. Solid Citizen Fallacy - These aren't just kooks, drunks and Beatniks reporting in this case (or many...

There are many issues involved in these statistics but I'm not going into them in this post. The main issue: This is a misperception rate, not a misreporting rate. There's nothing about being a cop that makes one better at perception than the general population. Even if one is a detective...

A bit of an aside, but, the term "trained observer" is bandied about a lot. But amateur astronomers fit the this description a lot better than most of the people to whom the term is applied. They actually do something on a regular basis to train their brain to perceive. When it comes to the...

https://www.oreilly.com/library/view/astronomy-hacks/0596100604/ch04s15.html#:~:text=Any combination of telescope and,stop diameter of the eyepiece. The info I've seen is that it was a ten inch Dobsonian with a 60x eyepiece. Do we have the info listed above? I was never much one for using...

Exactly.

How is this contradictory? The top edge of the roof of the nearby house has to be X number of degrees above the horizon. If X = ten degrees and the group was first seen 10 degrees above the roof... that equals 20 degrees above the horizon. Top edge of roof = 10 degrees above horizon Formation...

20:17 22:04

I think you're right. There seems to have been a UFO flap in July and August. I don't think a date in June would fit. The June 8th ISS match is just a coincidence.

Noted that the Encoded date, Tagged date and com.apple.quicktime.creationdate are in year/month/day format... ISO 8601. This is consistent with the hypothetical scenario that someone in the UK, looking at an ISO date, unknowingly switched the date from June 8 to August 6. Thin stuff, but...

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/ISO_8601 Today's date in the USA (Freedom Date): 3/29/24 - month/day/year - March 29, 2024 Today's date in India and the UK: 29/3/24 - day/month/year Today's date in ISO 8601 format: 24/3/29 - year/month/day - (which is the most rational method)...

Something prosaic that looks weird because digital cameras produce odd looking artifacts.

https://www.cnn.com/2024/03/28/us/visuals-maps-key-bridge-ship-collapse-dg/index.html

Another CT issue: The ship was deliberately steered into the bridge! That's what Alex Jones is going with. How to account for the change in course? Two basic factors: -What the ship was doing: rudder(s), torque from the propeller(s), anchor(s).... etc. I've just learned that there are left...

Could this be a commentary on the present state of UFOlogy? There are many unknowns in this case. Beckwith states that he was going to put energy into gathering more witness testimony. One goal of this is to triangulate. He seems to take it for granted that the witnesses were looking at the...

Yes. At first I thought this was a sped up video. I was wrong. You (and other factors) convinced me that I was wrong and this was an excerpt from a real time video. Once I was convinced of that I realized that my ideas about trains or bulldozers wouldn't work. No bulldozer could move that...

It's a freight yard. There are subtle differences between a rail yard and freight yard. A freight yard is used to assemble or build up trains, which involves either switchers or mainline locomotives moving forward and backing up multiple times. That was the first thing I looked into. Maybe...

Or it just dies down after the wood is all burned up. Out, out, brief campfire!

They sat in a kind of playground attached to a long ago McDonald's restaurant. Circa 1975. They're gone now because... too dangerous! Left: Officer Big Mac Right: The Grimace I'm guessing someone rescued them and set them up. You could get a pretty penny for them on eBay. [/SPOILER]