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Without mentioning the word, this is Trump's concession speech. More like a depression speech.

Gives some clarity on late early votes The first report did show a Trump bias, and so did the second one. So there is some validity to the question of whether the race could flip back. It's mathematically possible, but low probability... from what I can see. There's also about 90,000...

It was attempted voter suppression, but it failed. It turns out those GOP dirty tricks did fail, and the reason there are so many outstanding mail ballots is that so many came in on the last day. No one communicated that though. These are mail ballots from "Dem stronghold" Clark County, so...

But that got settled...??? Confusing. CNN confirming that NV has uncounted mail ballots... but why? And how many? From what I can see, it's 400,000 not tens of thousands. One GOP gambit was an attempt to shut down mail ballot counting machines, but I thought that had been nixed. CNN - Four...

Something strange going on in NV. NYT reporting only 937 mail ballots have been counted statewide. But there are 413,000 mail ballots in Clark County alone. I did some simple arithmetic, and sure enough the uncounted votes figure in Clark County matches that 413,000 figure. So it looks as if no...

Biden just took the lead in WI. But a lot of Dem votes are still missing in Milwaukee and some Trump votes still out in Green Bay county but that's dwarfed by the Dem votes outstanding. Biden is now on track to win WI.

Please understand what's happening in WI, MI, and PA. Mail ballots The red mirage Milwaukee etc. Biden is favored in all 3 of these states.

Huge surprise the NYT is predicting a 64% chance of Biden winning Georgia. I just looked at the data the NYT is using to predict this. Trump has run out of Trump counties and the remaining counties with unreported votes are heavily Biden. 91% of the vote is in and the count has stopped for the...

Yes, it does. 2016 had many Dems defending, this year many Reps are defending. Every single seat gained changes things significantly, so the thought of picking up 6 or 7 is huge. Staggering in the political implications.

There's an issue that's not well known, even to Americans, and that's reapportionment and redistricting, and the vital role state legislatures have upon the redistricting process. It's a recursive process which can make one party or the other dominant beyond its natural demographics on both a...

There's another factor. There's, historically, a fairly strong correlation between these separate elections. You’ve got nine Republican seats that are right on the knife’s edge, minus one from Alabama that will be going the other direction. One of the things that’s interesting about these...

Our final pre-election forecast is that the Democrats are likely to win a majority in the Senate. Chance of controlling the Senate Average simulated seat total Predicted range of seats (51 for majority) Democrats around 4 in 5 or 80% 52.2 seats 47-58 Republicans around 1 in 5 or 20%...

Let's not neglect The Economist Model https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president Chance of winning the electoral college Chance of winning the most votes Predicted range of electoral college votes (270 to win) Joe Biden Democrat better than 19 in 20 or 97% better than 19...

A bit of Nate Silver fun on SNL Source: https://youtu.be/XoOvN4-IY88?t=223 To Catch an Autist (it takes an Autist). I've noticed that NS has arranged the books on his shelves by color. Which swing states could give us enough info to call the election sometime before dawn? Not PA, that's...

Very much onboard with the bokeh hypothesis.

You're right. It could be a lie.

NYT https://www.nytimes.com/2020/10/11/health/covid-survivors.html It’s becoming known as Covid brain fog: troubling cognitive symptoms that can include memory loss, confusion, difficulty focusing, dizziness and grasping for everyday words. Increasingly, Covid survivors say brain fog is...

Something to be concerned about: https://www.health.harvard.edu/blog/the-hidden-long-term-cognitive-effects-of-covid-2020100821133 How COVID damages the brain COVID can cause damage to the brain directly by encephalitis, which may have devastating or subtle consequences. In one British study...

From the Rush Limbaugh interview. Trump tells us what the doctors told him: I was asking the doctors today... 11 guys... great people... you know the heads of the biggest hospitals... it's amazing... I guess the president has a lot of power... but everybody shows up. "What do you do"? "I'm...