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  1. Mendel

    Calvine UFO Photo - Reflection In Water Hypothesis

    yes, but is there evidence that they did?
  2. Mendel

    Calvine UFO Photo - Reflection In Water Hypothesis

    An argument from authority refers to two kinds of arguments: A non-fallacious argument from authority grounds a claim in the beliefs of one or more authoritative source(s), whose opinions are likely to be true on the relevant issue. Notably, insofar as the authorities in question are, indeed...
  3. Mendel

    Calvine UFO Photo - Reflection In Water Hypothesis

    or it is very overexposed what sometimes happens (as we've seen repeatedly on metabunk) is that people don't notice anything strange at the time of the sighting, but find something weird when they look at the pictures later this is, of course, a rare occurrence, but one that is often...
  4. Mendel

    Calvine UFO Photo - Reflection In Water Hypothesis

    we do not know what a UFO looks like remember, the one UFO that looked like this turned out to be a hoax this also looks like a rock, a mountain poking out of clouds, a kite, and a moldy ravioli
  5. Mendel

    Explaining the Ghost Boy in the Back Seat Photo with Occam's Razor

    that's why the idea has been floated that he's wearing a long-sleeved hoodie and is throwing a V sign the boy's head appears to be half the size in the picture; if the heads are equal sized, then perspective dictates that the boy's head is as far behind her as her smartphone is in front of...
  6. Mendel

    Which Gimbal scenario is more likely — 30 NM or 10 NM?

    "write a random string" ;) the 30nm track can be described by a position and a velocity, i.e. 6 numbers; the 10 nm track needs its graph to describe it
  7. Mendel

    Claim: Declining rail mode share in Japan proves high-speed rail is impractical

    Provided it can't be overridden. I had a conversation with a train driver-in-training, and seem to recall that (on some systems) it can be.
  8. Mendel

    Calvine UFO Photo - Reflection In Water Hypothesis

    well, as I see it, the military have two sources of evidence: 1) the photographs 2) their records We hear 2) was a bust, so 1) remains, and unless one of the lost photos shows the aircraft much more clearly such that markings are discernible, "looks like one" is the best this evidence can support.
  9. Mendel

    Calvine UFO Photo - Reflection In Water Hypothesis

    but how? what they established, given the deficiencies of the source material, that it looks more like a Harrier than any other likely aircraft but they also established it wasn't one of theirs unless the sighting data is wrong
  10. Mendel

    Calvine UFO Photo - Reflection In Water Hypothesis

    "no record of Harriers operating in the area at the time" to me translates as "it wasn't one" even though (if it was a plane) it looked like one if it's a fake, it doesn't really matter what plane it was
  11. Mendel

    Which Gimbal scenario is more likely — 30 NM or 10 NM?

    there is nothing unclear about it we don't have a definite identification, but "jet traveling level & straight @ 30 nm" is by far the most likely, imo
  12. Mendel

    Calvine: Disclosure Team Q&A

    he'd also have had the negatives developed commercially, which might've taken a week or more, since it was holiday season?
  13. Mendel

    Calvine UFO Photo - Reflection In Water Hypothesis

    I understood the military to say it wasn't, and what we know of circumstantial evidence also makes it look unlikely. For most anything else, we're free to guess.
  14. Mendel

    Claim: Original Calvine UFO Photo

    Full color printing simply uses 4 half-tone screens, one each for cyan, magenta, yellow, and black; and since the picture is b/w anyway, that's pretty much exactly what it would have looked like, possibly bigger and with a finer grid, but still the quality of the photographic paper used for the...
  15. Mendel

    Which Gimbal scenario is more likely — 30 NM or 10 NM?

    These likelihoods are not comparable. If an observer does not lock onto anything with the ATFLIR, itt gets unreported, and never enters the statistics. So once we have a report, we are already limited to the "unlikely" cases of ATFLIR locking onto something, and then we also eliminate the...
  16. Mendel

    Calvine UFO Photo - Reflection In Water Hypothesis

    or a dog without additional information, it's a Rohrschach test what we do know is that it wasn't a Harrier
  17. Mendel

    Claim: Declining rail mode share in Japan proves high-speed rail is impractical

    it's much easier (and not suicidal) to sabotage the tracks
  18. Mendel

    Why does the Gimbal shape change?

    yes. because what we see is not the jet's signature, but an uneven glare that's distorting it, at a distance where a jet would rarely be locked
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