Search results

Replying to the OP #1: Since you're applying simple Bayes, the denominator should be P( { CE_i } ). This means you are setting P( { CE_i }) =? P( { CE_i } | A ) P( A ) + P( { CE_i } | Not[A] ) P( Not[A] ) Is that identity true, though? We know that P( { CE_i } ) = P( { CE_i } | A ) + P( {...

Does this "portal" appear every night? Why is the White House offering a video feed that shows a top secret portal?

Since hardly anyone is wearing tinfoil hats around the White House, these people are obviously susceptible to mind control.

Headline from your source: Astronomer Uses Bayesian Statistics to Weigh Likelihood of Complex Life and Intelligence beyond EarthThis doesn't actually deal with extraterrestrial visits to Earth, it's just computing the likelihood of intelligent life emerging on a planet, which is part of the...

How do you define a "close encounter event"? Below, you expand this set notation as the product of all individual P(CE_i | A), and that's certainly not 1 unless you want to argue that the presence of aliens results in no more hoaxes or false reports. The maths doesn't add up here.

Is anecdotal evidence reliable? One man says yes.

published February 16, 2022 EA said last week that the expansion would not be available in Russia because of the country's LGBTQ laws, but has now changed its mind. The turnaround presumably means My Wedding Stories will have to be rated Adults Only in Russia, which will keep it out of the...

AFAIK it's not being offered, so that it can't get banned? It's not incriminating evidence, so it shouldn't be laid out there.

The best way to show refraction is typically via background distortion, which is why Heath Carmody's observations at a mountain lake in the daytime are so useful: you can see the perceived water level go up and down while the mountainsides and-tops stay unmoved, so you see compression going on...

No, but it would demonstrate that this hypothesis corresponds to reality. That's more than the "it's real" hypothesis has going for it at this point.

Google thinks it's similar to this: which is actually

It's still not a scientific process because falsification is ruled out either way. They've just found a way to defend their belief whilst acknowledging the evidence; if they hadn't, they wouldn't. That's why we can agree with them and say, we're probably never going to know what it is, so...

Nuclear safety, security and safeguards experts from the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) are continuing to work at the Chornobyl nuclear power plant (NPP) this week to deliver equipment, conduct radiological assessments and restore safeguards monitoring systems. The experts arrived at...

Yes, exactly. The Transnistria things started happening after the Russian rhetoric of keeping South Ukraine to have a future land bridge to Transnistria. To some people in Moldavia, this may look like Moldavia is going to become Ukraine 2.0 (since Russia was never content with the 2014 borders...

"Evangelist" is not an insult; in my understanding, it stands for someone aggressively pushing an idea, see e.g. "technology evangelist". It does not imply lying, pseudo-science, or actual religion, though it strongly suggests bias.

Thank you for clarifying! Given that the reflective rings may be on the outside of the lens assembly, they may mostly be in shadow in the bottom left corner, and the fall-off difference you observe seems slight, with the main difference being a reflected arc in the lower left corner that may...

Ukrainian forces likely conducted drone or possibly missile strikes on Russian logistics centers in Belgorod and Voronezh on April 27. Russian sources and social media reported multiple explosions early on April 27, which Ukrainian Presidential Advisor Mikhail Podolyak later euphemistically...

I'm not sure I follow the physics here. Irregular refraction/diffraction is typically the stronger the smaller its angle is (sundogs being one exception), and for that, the angle to the camera matters as much as the angle to light source—more, in fact, because the camera is closer to the pane.

Most people find this challenging, and Nathan Oakley is among them. That's why his argument isn't anything as complex as that. He has reiterated many times, in livestreams and shorts edited from them, that sextants measure elevation from a "flat baseline", which purportedly proves Earth is flat...

Wolfie has put up a $500 prize for the first Flat Earther who can determine their Flag Earth position with a sextant. I believe the prize is as yet unclaimed. Source: https://youtu.be/QyLogn0SxR4?t=189