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My idea was that if you can push the "when" back far enough, the "if" won't matter too much.

Healy was a communist for 3 years in his youth. The significance of the quote -- if it is genuine-- varies sharply with whether it was coined before he took goverment office, or afterwards. If before, it's just idle speculation with no weight.

Many Covid-19 patients who are low on oxygen do not always have trouble breathing! They get something like high altitude sickness, being up a mountain with no oxygen, or a pilot in a jet plane where the pressurisation failed. Lack of oxygen is called hypoxia, and mild hypoxia destroys your...

You're actually supporting my original point, as did Deirdre when she posted about it in #213. ;-) On the subject of excess mortality, the NYT has published an article comparing this year's mortality to the historical average for various countries, and also checked if the reported Covid-19...

I noticed a WHO subsite being down on Monday.

Precisely. But he's stating it as a fact, "going to be close to zero", referring to the number of cases. Azar is saying that there will be more cases, not less. Messonier says there will be many more. So, what was the administration communication that day? "It's going to go away? Wait and see...

The Medical Examiner-Coroner performed autopsies on two individuals who died at home on February 6, 2020 and February 17, 2020. Samples from the two individuals were sent to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Today, the Medical Examiner-Coroner received confirmation from the CDC...

It's an example of what the timeline looks like. The columns are "Date", "Happening elsewhere", "Administration remarks", "Administration actions". The screenshot is also an example where the administration communication was at odds with each other regarding the future outlook: Messonier: "need...

@Agent K Thank you! The study they cite is "Estimating the asymptomatic proportion of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) cases on board the Diamond Princess cruise ship, Yokohama, Japan, 2020" https://www.eurosurveillance.org/content/10.2807/1560-7917.ES.2020.25.10.2000180 In this study, we...

NPR have released a "Trump Timeline". With near-daily task force briefings, President Trump has delivered an ever-evolving message to the American public about the coronavirus pandemic. The constant is the inconsistency. At times he has been in sync with the public health experts advising him...

You put the pink line right in the center of the 2018/2019 flu season (which was mild). Flue season is winter! The age chart on the EuroMomo page shows that very clearly as well (look at Portugal), you may want to have a look there. The influenza season is pretty much over everywhere on the...

I'm in Europe, and I don't believe this, either. Viruses mutate a lot without changing what they do, and I heard this directly from a virologist. To put the impact of different mortalities by demographic on genetics, you'd first need to ascertain the actual infection rates in these groups, and...

I tend to think of this thread as mostly "statistics, cases, and mortality", but flu vs. Covid-19 mortality isn't difficult to compare with any more even without any rates. https://www.cdc.gov/flu/about/burden/index.html https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/...

We've seen a similar effect in Germany , except since we were mostly past the flu season already, it just stopped sooner. That's the fun thing about hygiene: it has good health effects across the board, you have nothing to lose if you advocate it. Well, what do you want to know? Overview * It...

I think they did that mostly so they could do their weighing. Which didn't fix the age group issues, and probably obscured the error: the 1.5% raw rate is within their 95% Confidence Interval for the false positive rate, but once they've blown the probabilities up with the weighing, their...

Participants were recruited via a proprietary database that is representative of the county population. The database is maintained by LRW Group, a market research firm. That's promising, at least. Since they took the samples on April 10th and 11th, the paper ought to not yet be out if they're...

If you see any, let me know. I bet this is going to vanish in a puff of smoke once more robust studies come out. The WHO director of research said in the press conference today that the WHO is supporting some more robust studies across the world, and she indicated that preliminary data looks...

I just learned that there is an email list for epidemics. Their homepage has a world map where you can find out more about current outbreaks. (I looked at a few notes and now know that koalas in Australia are getting infected by something akin to koala AIDS.) https://promedmail.org/ The Program...

It's a good exercise: thinking about "what exactly is the claim" and "what exactly is the evidence they claim to have" are among the first questions you need to answer when you want to deal with something like that on your own!

From the website: The Johns Hopkins Center for Health Security in partnership with the World Economic Forum and the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation hosted Event 201, a high-level pandemic exercise on October 18, 2019, in New York, NY. The exercise illustrated areas where public/private...