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  1. Mendel

    Debunked: Dr. Shiva's Scatterplot Analysis of Michigan Precincts

    Kent County (I explained the graph in my previous post) It looks a lot like Oakland. I don't see anything wrong with it.
  2. Mendel

    Debunked: Dr. Shiva's Scatterplot Analysis of Michigan Precincts

    That's the fallacy. He's assuming that the non-straight-ticket vote follows the straight Republican vote, and there's no evidence that it would, except in a very general sense. I'd certainly not be expecting the ratio of independent voters for Trump or Biden to follow the ratio of the...
  3. Mendel

    Debunked: Dr. Shiva's Scatterplot Analysis of Michigan Precincts

    An additional consideration is that in a precinct with 0% Republicans, you can't have fewer votes for Trump than there are Republican votes. So simply by the way the graph is set up, the left side data must all be above the red line. If I look at it like this, I'm thinking that there's a fixed...
  4. Mendel

    Debunked: Dr. Shiva's Scatterplot Analysis of Michigan Precincts

    Without the data I can't really compute a trend line. But here, I've put the end points at the vertical centers (eyeballed averages) of the left and right ends and hand-shaped a trend that looks anything but linear. There's only a corner in the trend if you want there to be one.
  5. Mendel

    Debunked: Dr. Shiva's Scatterplot Analysis of Michigan Precincts

    As I understand it, his analysis looks at the “down ticket” voting patterns in individual precincts of four counties in Michigan. The unnatural pattern is that the more Republican the precinct, the less likely they were to vote for Trump. Thousands of Trump votes were given to Biden in strongly...
  6. Mendel

    Debunked: Dr. Shiva's Scatterplot Analysis of Michigan Precincts

    Here's a publication on that video: Michigan: MIT PhD Shows Trump’s Margin Was Reduced by 138,000 Votes in Just Four Counties by a Counting Computer with the “Weighted Race” Feature Turned On, which Transferred Votes from Trump to Biden In Michigan, in four counties alone, 69,000 votes were...
  7. Mendel

    2020 US Election - Current Events

    It shouldn't require activism to ensure that citizens have the right to vote.
  8. Mendel

    2020 US Election - Current Events

    My point is that for us, it's the only step. If you have your government ID, you can vote, no additional registration required.
  9. Mendel

    2020 US Election - Current Events

    I was referring to a general ID, akin to a passport (and usable as a passport when traveling within the EU). Every adult has one, by law. That doesn't discriminate. In Germany, we can get it at our town hall for ~$30 (less for people on social security), it's valid for 10 years.
  10. Mendel

    COVID-19 Coronavirus current events

    The y-axis shows the test positivity rate from the German laboratory surveillance; the thickness of the blob for a certain day indicates how many tests samples were taken that day. Compare to the number of cases: It seems obvious that the increase in testing over the summer corresponds to a...
  11. Mendel

    2020 US Election - Current Events

    From a European/German perspective, there are two important differences in how the USA run their elections: a) The Electoral College. It's a mechanism that regularly contravenes a majority popular vote. Without the Electoral College, "swing states" would just be regular states. (I know it helps...
  12. Mendel

    2020 US Election - Current Events

    "HOW TRUMP STOLE 2020" by Greg Palast. This is about the 2018 elections. In the lead-up to his run for Governor, Kemp purged 665,677, two-thirds of a million registrations. The Purge erased the voting rights of one in eight Georgians. [..] So my investigations team created a computer program...
  13. Mendel

    2020 US Election - Current Events

    This is starting to look like a gish gallop. Most readers here are familiar with the term, but for those who are new: The Gish gallop is a technique used during debating that focuses on overwhelming an opponent with as many arguments as possible, without regard for accuracy or strength of the...
  14. Mendel

    Claims of Irregularities in NYT's Edison Election Data

    For sure. If there's a problem with the reporting, that doesn't mean there's a problem with vote itself. The idea that, if there are vote counts reported at 4am in the morning, these must be somehow criminal, came from the White House. When people look at something for the first time, they...
  15. Mendel

    COVID-19 Coronavirus current events

    Here's some two-dimensional data out of Germany how the infection spreads across age groups. You can see that the first wave lingered longer in the older demographic, and that the second wave was spreading for months among the younger people before moving onto everyone else when autumn came.
  16. Mendel

    2020 US Election - Current Events

    Precinct-level data shows that outside of heavily blue metropolitan areas like Phoenix and Tucson, which also have high numbers of Indigenous voters, much of the rural blue islands that have voted for Biden and Mark Kelly, the Democratic candidate for U.S. Senate, are on tribal lands. On some...
  17. Mendel

    2020 US Election - Current Events

    They might have some bugs:
  18. Mendel

    Trump Campaign Lawsuit Regarding Maricopa Overvotes (and Sharpies)

    “There were 155,860 votes voted in person on Election Day (in Maricopa County),” Liddy continued. “Of those, the tabulator only identified 180 potential overvotes on the presidential line … 180, that’s it.” And he said it would be “absurd” to assume that all 180 were incorrectly deemed...
  19. Mendel

    Who Owns Dominion Voting Systems Corp? Not Avid Technologies. Not Richard Blum.

    How? Avid was selling software to TV stations. Source from 2006: Some 140 stations used specialized software from editing and graphics supplier Avid Technology to automate their election coverage last week. The system, called LeaderPlus, helps stations cover voting results by ingesting multiple...
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