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  1. Mendel

    UAPs, Bigelow, and the "Invisible College"

    Keane kickstarting a 2004 UFO flap with a 2017 article would be proof of "breakthrough physics". :p (And I'd say Keane was merely Elizondo's accomplice.)
  2. Mendel

    Skinwalker Ranch - Laser Beam Stops and Starts in Mid Air

    If it's not all a sham—which it may well be—, then it's confirmation bias at work: they are expecting something spooky, and thus subconsciously disregarding everything that is not spooky (including the actual explanation).
  3. Mendel

    Skinwalker Ranch - Laser Beam Stops and Starts in Mid Air

    Wouldn't be the first time clouds have appeared as UFOs (e.g. here). But seriously, what were they thinking? Shine a powerful flashlight into the sky and be surprised there are clouds up there? Whilst forgetting what shape their beam has? (Looking for an object fixed above a certain location...
  4. Mendel

    Unidentified Objects/Balloons Intercepted by US aircraft

    The unidentified objects were a lot smaller than an airliner, for sure. A ham radio picoballoon can't be more than a single blip on the radar. Re: the "LOS at right angles" issue: The radar profile is temporal, i.e. the radar resolves the distance of the scattering centers from the antenna...
  5. Mendel

    UAPs, Bigelow, and the "Invisible College"

    Try https://www.cia.gov/resources/csi/studies-in-intelligence/studies-in-intelligence-1997/cias-role-in-the-study-of-ufos-1947-1990/ : A Die-hard Issue: CIA's Role in the Study of UFOs, 1947–1990 By Gerald K. Haines In late 1993, after being pressured by UFOlogists for the release of...
  6. Mendel

    UAPs, Bigelow, and the "Invisible College"

    Nice overview! You would think the field of ufology should be heavily populated with physicists, biologists, astronomers. Instead, it appears that the core of the myth-making machine consists of armchair specialists, all with day jobs. It bears pointing out that physicists study physical things...
  7. Mendel

    Skinwalker Ranch - Laser Beam Stops and Starts in Mid Air

    See for example Gimlin-Patterson or the MH370 portal. I'd say we cannot always debunk it, but that's true for everything.
  8. Mendel

    Unidentified Objects/Balloons Intercepted by US aircraft

    The best you get out of the presented algorithms is, "this is similar to object A", which is an object the algorithm has been trained on. It's not going to help identify something truly unknown, like a picture would.
  9. Mendel

    Skinwalker Ranch - Laser Beam Stops and Starts in Mid Air

    Rarely has it been harder for me not to be snarky about something.
  10. Mendel

    Claim: UFO's May Be Stealth Aliens Living in Caves, on the Dark Side of the Moon or Alaska

    You really should indicate that this is a paraphrase. The analogy is that, when faced with two toddlers and an empty nutella jar, there is no evidence that the clean toddler didn't do it, but you're still going to scold the one with chocolate stains on her face. There's a marked imbalance in...
  11. Mendel

    Claim: UFO's May Be Stealth Aliens Living in Caves, on the Dark Side of the Moon or Alaska

    From another thread: • MH2: It's Santa Claus. Reasoning: you can't prove he doesn't exist; and to be able to gift millions of children in a single night, he clearly knows something about the laws of physics that we don't. GIMBAL shows his sleigh on a test ride. The white color of Tic Tacs is...
  12. Mendel

    Claim: UFO's May Be Stealth Aliens Living in Caves, on the Dark Side of the Moon or Alaska

    Apparently, Americans don't trust their fellow citizens with "ante-natal": Antenatal is more commonly used in British English, prenatal in American English. I took an umbrella because I anticipated precipitation.
  13. Mendel

    Skinwalker Ranch - Laser Beam Stops and Starts in Mid Air

    "How to triangulate the height of a tree" is a highschool maths problem. It's not hard to do, and not hard to measure with simple equipment (like a protractor and a piece of string). 2000 ft is ~600m or ⅓ of a mile, a distance hard to estimate into the sky with no nearby objects to help and a...
  14. Mendel

    The Ariel School, Zimbabwe UFO sighting - has it ever been debunked?

    See also https://www.metabunk.org/threads/a-game-designer%E2%80%99s-analysis-of-qanon.11509/ . Apophenia is : “the tendency to perceive a connection or meaningful pattern between unrelated or random things (such as objects or ideas)”
  15. Mendel

    Claim: UFO's May Be Stealth Aliens Living in Caves, on the Dark Side of the Moon or Alaska

    you mean David Grusch's dimension-traveling NIHs?
  16. Mendel

    Claim: UFO's May Be Stealth Aliens Living in Caves, on the Dark Side of the Moon or Alaska

    Why would he think someone was hiding in amusement park caves?
  17. Mendel

    Skinwalker Ranch - Laser Beam Stops and Starts in Mid Air

    The background is obviously painted anyway. (The lines and arrows should be a clue, if nothing else.)
  18. Mendel

    Claim: UFO's May Be Stealth Aliens Living in Caves, on the Dark Side of the Moon or Alaska

    Manufacturing mystery is certainly a common enough pattern. My pet peeve is Graves selling pilot sightings of on-station Starlink as UAP well after he should've known what they were. Or people constructing a "J-Hook" from GIMBAL when a straight target path would explain the data. Or anything...
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