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  1. Rory

    St Ives Bay UFO On Hayle Beach [Probably a Drone]

    For future ease of measurements, here's a composite of the light in its various positions: The timings are approximate, simply taken from the webcam clock (more accurate could easily be found) and the pixel measurements just for a guide. I've got the light travelling vertically at 2.2 times...
  2. Rory

    St Ives Bay UFO On Hayle Beach [Probably a Drone]

    Have you got a screenshot from when you took that measurement? He's hard to see so I'm guessing you contrast enhanced it?
  3. Rory

    St Ives Bay UFO On Hayle Beach [Probably a Drone]

    Can you show your calculations please?
  4. Rory

    Debunked: serial killers are more likely to be born under certain zodiac signs than others [misundertanding of probability and sample size]

    Well, for some strange reason I decided to scrutinize a few of those studies that propose connections between season/month of birth and various psychiatric illnesses to see if they pass my amateur test: Study: https://sci-hub.se/10.1111/j.1530-0277.2000.tb02055.x Sample size: 42,430...
  5. Rory

    Debunked: serial killers are more likely to be born under certain zodiac signs than others [misundertanding of probability and sample size]

    On a related note to both the question of whether certain personality types are more likely to be born at certain times of the year, and also issues of interpreting probability, I've been reading about studies which appear to show a link between things like schizophrenia, bipolar disorder...
  6. Rory

    Debunked: serial killers are more likely to be born under certain zodiac signs than others [misundertanding of probability and sample size]

    I think "number of killers by birth year" would be a very good stat to have - it would link well with a question I had, which was whether killers' ages have changed significantly over the decades (other demographics have). More specific info on birth order could be interesting too. Definitely...
  7. Rory

    Debunked: serial killers are more likely to be born under certain zodiac signs than others [misundertanding of probability and sample size]

    Not sure about that... Source: Radford University/Florida Gulf Coast University Serial Killer Database Probably the other potential reasons put forward in that BBC article are much more likely: Major changes in society Increase in "broken families" People moving more Less likely to know...
  8. Rory

    Debunked: serial killers are more likely to be born under certain zodiac signs than others [misundertanding of probability and sample size]

    While these 'studies' reference ~490 serial killers and Wikipedia lists 500+ from the US alone, there's a 2016 report from Radford University (who maintain the Radford University/FGCU Serial Killer Database) that contains information on 4,743 serial killers worldwide and 3,204 from the US...
  9. Rory

    Debunked: serial killers are more likely to be born under certain zodiac signs than others [misundertanding of probability and sample size]

    I don't really understand how that works - but I did get an online calculator to do it for me. It said: "Chi squared equals 19.050 with 11 degrees of freedom." Any idea what that means?
  10. Rory

    Debunked: serial killers are more likely to be born under certain zodiac signs than others [misundertanding of probability and sample size]

    Good point. The simple spreadsheet test shows around +/- 50% of average would be "normal" - so something some distance outside that range could be considered significant. Certainly +200% of average (120 versus an average of 40) would appear "outside the bounds of chance". There are probably...
  11. Rory

    Debunked: serial killers are more likely to be born under certain zodiac signs than others [misundertanding of probability and sample size]

    I don't think it's quite that: if they had a sample size of 5 million serial killers and found that some zodiac signs were 3 times higher than others then it would be correct to highlight that. The probability of results like that occurring by chance would be incredibly small. So definitely a...
  12. Rory

    Debunked: serial killers are more likely to be born under certain zodiac signs than others [misundertanding of probability and sample size]

    Also related: an older claim that the FBI released a study ranking the connection between likelihood of criminal behavior and zodiac signs. This has already been debunked in several places, such as: https://www.snopes.com/fact-check/fbi-revealed-the-most-dangerous-zodiac-signs/
  13. Rory

    Debunked: serial killers are more likely to be born under certain zodiac signs than others [misundertanding of probability and sample size]

    A 2021 study of 485 serial killers proposed that certain astrological signs were overrepresented (and others therefore underrepresented) with "key findings" being: * Four signs — Cancer, Pisces, Sagittarius, and Scorpio (46 each) — account for almost 40 percent of serial killers. Gemini and...
  14. Rory

    Need Debunking: US & Ukraine oppose UN Resolution condemning Nazism

    One more image for the "Azov like swastikas and skulls" archive: Source: reddit.com/r/vexillology/comments/q7387h/reason_for_the_different_colors_im_sorry (though originally on pikabu.ru) Article about the "Misanthropic Division" here...
  15. Rory

    Claim: Pleiadian Craft part of a fleet of 40 with a mothership.

    Interesting. I thought it might have been from a few years ago but it was just last week. The guy there also says "it's been doing the rounds".
  16. Rory

    Claim: Pleiadian Craft part of a fleet of 40 with a mothership.

    The shadows on the fake craft are okay, but what about the shadow it 'casts' on the ground? Original vid states it was taken in September 2018. What's the link for that one?
  17. Rory

    Claim: Pleiadian Craft part of a fleet of 40 with a mothership.

    Nice find - should help a lot. Google Maps link for those who prefer/can use more easily. I guess looking at the shadows cast by the rocks, etc could rule that in/out.
  18. Rory

    Mississippi Skunk Ape?

    I did a 60km overnight hike once in the mountains in Washington State. I saw thousands of bears - always tree stumps, shadows, sticks, etc - and after a few hours of being scared silly I decided to just chill and take what comes. Pretty sure I saw a couple of actual real grizzlies around 2am...
  19. Rory

    How high could the plane have hit, and still caused a total collapse?

    Shouldn't this thread be in Rambles, Open Discussion or ChitChat? Is there a claim that is being debunked? @Landru
  20. Rory

    Claim: Pleiadian Craft part of a fleet of 40 with a mothership.

    Like this? https://twitter.com/search?f=top&q=pleiadian%20(to%3AKabamur_taygeta)&src=typed_query Some very whacky posts among those search results. I see he and other Pleiadian lovers are also into QAnon. This one's a doozy: www.twitter.com/blueray5656/status/1266010048225964032
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