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  1. Z.W. Wolf

    Phoenix Lights

    I've found a video - Michael Tanner Skywatch International UFO Conference There are at least two witnesses telling their stories, but I don't have time to get to this today.
  2. Z.W. Wolf

    Phoenix Lights

    Hold on a minute. What we don't know... -Are these actors pretending to be witnesses and this is all scripted malarkey? -Are these witnesses whose story has grown more dramatic over the years? That's known to happen, you know... even when telling a funny family story. (My Aunts told me funny...
  3. Z.W. Wolf

    Phoenix Lights

    These witness testimony scenes are recycled from an earlier (2003) Fox thing called Out of the Blue. Cued to the introduction of UFO Investigator Michael Tanner comes in: Were these witnesses selected from the "roughly 800 reports from eyewitnesses"? I need to know a lot more about these...
  4. Z.W. Wolf

    Phoenix Lights

    This documentary has no credibility. That's the answer to why this angular size estimate is such an outlier. C'mon.
  5. Z.W. Wolf

    Phoenix Lights

    Could we have the source of this estimate? By source I mean, where was it first published? I'd like to see the original witness statement... not a paraphrase. What is the witness name, and witness location? Time?
  6. Z.W. Wolf

    Green Fireballs - UFOs or Meteors?

    Whatever it was, it wasn't a meteor. My best guess is that it was an aircraft with contrail. The color(s) might be explained by refraction effects.
  7. Z.W. Wolf

    Anti-gravity Drive From "New Force" Defies Physics

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pathological_science#:~:text=Pathological science, as defined by,expectancy effect and cognitive bias). The present case, as described by john.phil, hits a lot of those beats. N-rays are an infamous example of pathological science. I'll insert some bits of text...
  8. Z.W. Wolf

    Diana W. Pasulka - aliens & religion & other dimensions (JRE podcast #2091)

    Clarify please. This is the way I read this: Gallimore believes that the places and beings encountered during DMT adventures have an independent existence - as Africa and Africans exist, even though I've never been there. But he's an agnostic as to their nature. In other words he's not a...
  9. Z.W. Wolf

    Diana W. Pasulka - aliens & religion & other dimensions (JRE podcast #2091)

    Passion aside, the issue seems to be chemistry and psychopharmacology versus experience. Gallimore seems to me to be saying that the DMT experience is unique. Gallimore's scientific credentials and research are relevant when limited to the empirical evidence we have about the experience of...
  10. Z.W. Wolf

    Diana W. Pasulka - aliens & religion & other dimensions (JRE podcast #2091)

    This short clip was ambiguous, so I've been looking at YT videos to see what Gallimore is really saying. After a short while it was evident to me that he believes what this source says...
  11. Z.W. Wolf

    Green Fireballs - UFOs or Meteors?

    This was the early days of rocketry. I've had a notion for years... Could these have been experiments? Was some government/military agency sending up suborbital flights to study the dynamics of reentry? Did they send up bits of nickel that would put on a light show and be easily...
  12. Z.W. Wolf

    Iran's Drone and Missile Attack on Israel. April 13 2024

    https://wiki.destiny.gg/view/Ryan_McBeth McBeth concentrates on state sponsored disinformation and how private citizens are brought into that process on social media. A reminder that these days conspiracy theories are often generated and shaped rather than evolve "naturally." So far this is...
  13. Z.W. Wolf

    Arizona "drone" circles helicopter and zips off over a mountain. 100mph speeds, 14k height ascent, visual testimony from pilots who ran out of gas.

    Initial impressions: They keep climbing but the object also keeps climbing... They see it through the top window. They complain that it's playing around with them... They have to give up the chase because they've run out of endurance while the thing is still going strong. This sounds like...
  14. Z.W. Wolf

    Ross Coulthart

    Ye This is so well known that I didn't feel the need to state it.
  15. Z.W. Wolf

    Ross Coulthart

    The games at carnivals seem a better metaphor. When you do get a prize it turns out to be made of foil wrapped around grass clippings.
  16. Z.W. Wolf

    Phoenix Lights

    In my opinion this is an example of the Witness Variability Fallacy. See post 134 The Selection Effect is also important in this case. We're getting the wildest misperceptions but very few reports of the accurate perceptions. These are related, of course. As mentioned earlier in this...
  17. Z.W. Wolf

    Phoenix Lights

    We've gone back to square one when it comes to the Solid Citizen Fallacy, the Trained Observer Fallacy, the Anecdotal Report Fallacy, The Witness Variability Fallacy and The Selection Effect. Solid Citizen Fallacy - These aren't just kooks, drunks and Beatniks reporting in this case (or many...
  18. Z.W. Wolf

    Phoenix Lights

    There are many issues involved in these statistics but I'm not going into them in this post. The main issue: This is a misperception rate, not a misreporting rate. There's nothing about being a cop that makes one better at perception than the general population. Even if one is a detective...
  19. Z.W. Wolf

    Phoenix Lights

    A bit of an aside, but, the term "trained observer" is bandied about a lot. But amateur astronomers fit the this description a lot better than most of the people to whom the term is applied. They actually do something on a regular basis to train their brain to perceive. When it comes to the...
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