UFO Flap - The Big Picture

Difficulty to cope with uncertainty seems indeed as one plausible psychological factor for some believers who'd rather have an easily digestible explanation to all unknowns than to accept these unknowns as 'unknowns'.

However, the hard problem of consciousness is an unknown in terms of not lending itself easily to any explanation including reductive materialism. We have also discussed and debated it on other threads. In other words, the self-identified skeptic is often the one that assumes a neurophysiological explanation to abstract cognitive human capacities such as 'morality' and 'ability to comprehend and discuss psychology and philosophy' without any evidence existing to that effect. In exactly the same way a dualist assumes such experiences must be born of some spiritual substance which evades all scientific scrutiny.

This is a topic more for a separate thread, but since your broached the theme, I will say this.

Materialism is a popular philosophical belief underlying much of skeptical thought and, in many ways, represents an understandable historical counter-reaction to fanatical, naive, frequently illogical, evidently ridiculous and superstitious religious beliefs imposed on the average person throughout history. However, materialism is not the foundation, nor any sort of requirement, of a rigorous scientific pursuit. Empirical falsifiability is.

Many scientists subscribe to materialist/physicalist beliefs, others don't. The alternative to materialism does not need to be superstitious, bigoted and moralistic religious dogma promoted by the more noisome denominations nor some fluffy feel-good spiritualism involving crystals, unicorns, mushrooms and manifesting that seems to be the latest trend. Unfortunately these intellectually jarring popular alternatives to materialism put all non-materialist ideas in a bad and unscientific light, and renders materialism as the only popularly known philosophical position that doesn't invite the stigma of a 'kook'.

Having said that, science is founded upon the philosophical assumption that only the physically observable universe lends itself to scientific scrutiny by the virtue of the hypothetico-deductive method of rigorously testing testable hypotheses through empirical predictions and experiments. It's also founded upon the philosophical assumption of a mind-independent reality (realism, as opposed to solipsism or phenomenalism) and that for every phenomenon there must be a sufficient reason to occur which science exists to explore (the Principle of Sufficient Reason, a.k.a. PoSR).

These are some of the philosophical beliefs underlying rigorous scientific pursuit which in themselves are higher-order philosophical axioms and hence scientifically unprovable.

But materialism isn't one of them. It's a separate unprovable philosophical belief that makes a sweeping claim on the underlying character / substance of all existence, as is the alternative claim that there must be 'spiritual' substance in addition to material that accounts for all things irreducible to material things, or the third option (which I am inclined to accept) that 'substance' (physical or non-physical) is an entirely inadequate predicate to describe all the weird stuff that's happening at a far closer level of observation and analysis of our physical world as well as of our own consciousness whilst, neither, do these two phenomena lend themselves to the same language of explanations.

Hence, to apply, say, quantum mechanical concepts (say, the wave function, decoherence, superposition, entanglement, uncertainty principle) to explain consciousness stops at its tracks due to its evident and immediate conceptual limitations. Conscious experiences being explicable through QM or neurophysiological processes is an unproven materialist god-of-the-gaps claim that can also be said to stem from a psychological need to counter 'spiritual' (non-physical) ideas due to the uncomfortable historical/cultural/religious baggage they often bring along with them even though they don't need to all go together as one big dogmatic ensemble. But one thing weird doesn't automatically account for another thing weird.

It'd be conducive to a more scientific and constructive discussion on consciousness if everyone just accepted: 'I don't know exactly what it is, but it has thus far persistently evaded reduction to known physical, including neurophysiological, phenomena whilst remaining intimately correlational to brain-processes'.

Oof. I agree with all of this. I should have used a different and non-contentious example than consciousness. It was just the first and biggest anomalous outlier that came to mind that continues to resist reductionist explanations. I have no interest in defending materialism and don't want to derail this thread.
 
Lack of sleep, high stress, and most importantly high on drugs.
Can easily lead to visual hallucinations
If the Foo Fighters were anything like the recent wave of US Navy pilot reports, the Foo Fighters would probably not be the product of hallucinations so much as misidentification of natural end terrestrial phenomena. Distant planes, meteors and bolides, sundogs, celestial bodies, and so on. In some cases they may even have been experimental aircraft, rockets or flares fired from the ground by their military opponents.

The effects of amphetamines on perception should probably not be ignored, either, although they would be more likely to exaggerate perceived phenomena than create hallucinations from nothing.
 
If the Foo Fighters were anything like the recent wave of US Navy pilot reports, the Foo Fighters would probably not be the product of hallucinations so much as misidentification of natural end terrestrial phenomena. Distant planes, meteors and bolides, sundogs, celestial bodies, and so on. In some cases they may even have been experimental aircraft, rockets or flares fired from the ground by their military opponents.

The effects of amphetamines on perception should probably not be ignored, either, although they would be more likely to exaggerate perceived phenomena than create hallucinations from nothing.

That depends on the amount of amphetamines and their effect on their sleep. I work with a lot of meth users and visual hallucinations are extremely common, though typically they're due to meth induced sleep deprivation (3-5 days without sleep isn't uncommon). Granted, these hallucinations tend to be of shadow people and the like with a lot of paranoia sprinkled in, but culture has a pretty powerful effect on the content of hallucinations so when you add the effects of amphetamines and sleep deprivation to individuals in a constant state of hypervigilance and stress in the middle of a war it wouldn't be surprising that their own hallucinations would reflect their own fears and the cultural mythos of the time.

Do we know what the potency of the amphetamines given to pilots was at the time? Was it closer to today's normal Adderall dosages or something closer to meth?
 
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I'd suggest expanding (1) as well, because if we are discussing the current emphasis, we must also mention the current political climate. At the moment in the USA one party is desperately trying to distract from the criminal charges against the ex-president, and any shiny object waved in front of the electorate can certainly be a distraction. Additionally, it is in their (short term) interest to foment distrust of the current government. I'm talking about the motivation and the objectives of the political lobbyists that you mention briefly in (1).
I'm beginning to see it as part of the War on Science. I'm not seeing a lot of difference between the UFO flap and Flat Earthism, Moon Hoaxism, QAnon and the idea the Government is implating us with nanochips. Some people get passionate about this stuff.

When there's full disclosure we'll all have anti-gravity vehicles and free unlimited energy. I can hardly wait.
 
I'm actually thinking about suggesting to @Mick West that we could use something similar to this 8-point big picture (or whatever alternative 'big picture' formulation we can together come up with) to introduce this broader framework (i.e. the complex and cross-disciplinary interplay of at least these 8 factors underlying the resurgent UFO flap) to the lay MB viewers as succinctly as we can, whilst linking all the necessary threads and evidence to each of the eight points.

What we really need is a "UFO/Aliens Speculative Chitchat" subforum or "UFO meta", for all the threads like this one.

@Mick West
 
Do we know what the potency of the amphetamines given to pilots was at the time? Was it closer to today's normal Adderall dosages or something closer to meth?
Here's an article on the subject.
https://allthatsinteresting.com/amphetamine-use-world-war-2
A 1942 memo from a commanding officer stated that soldiers of the 24th Armored Tank Brigade should receive 20 milligrams of Benzedrine per day during their time in Egypt. The recommended dosage for Royal Air Force pilots during that time, meanwhile, was 10 milligrams.

I've very limited (but non-zero) experience with amphetamines, so I don't really know if this is a lot or a little.
 
What we really need is a "UFO/Aliens Speculative Chitchat" subforum or "UFO meta", for all the threads like this one.

@Mick West

Jointly formulating a hypothesis of the bigger picture and of the complex interplay of causes for further study and examination of evidence is not chit chat but an attempt to get to the core of the issue in a scientific spirit.
 
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Hence, to apply, say, quantum mechanical concepts (say, the wave function, decoherence, superposition, entanglement, uncertainty principle) to explain consciousness stops at its tracks due to its evident and immediate conceptual limitations. Conscious experiences being explicable through QM or neurophysiological processes is an unproven materialist god-of-the-gaps claim that can also be said to stem from a psychological need to counter 'spiritual' (non-physical) ideas due to the uncomfortable historical/cultural/religious baggage they often bring along with them even though they don't need to all go together as one big dogmatic ensemble. But one thing weird doesn't automatically account for another thing weird.

The biggest problem with explaining consciousness in terms of quantum mechanics is not simply the woo factor but that it doesn't provide an explanation. If consciousness cannot be explained in terms of neurons, or synapses, or molecules, or even at standard atomic chemistry level....why would it be any more explicable in terms of quantum mechanics ? That is something the QM consciousness advocates can never answer.
 
Here's an article on the subject.
https://allthatsinteresting.com/amphetamine-use-world-war-2


I've very limited (but non-zero) experience with amphetamines, so I don't really know if this is a lot or a little.

20mg is the average amount an adult with ADHD is typically prescribed to take per day. Not very much at all. From your link:

"It stops you from sleeping, but it doesn’t stop you from feeling fatigued,” explained World War II historian and PBS documentary consultant James Holland. “Your body has no chance to recover from the fatigue it’s suffering, so there comes a point where you come off the drug and you just collapse, you can’t function.”

This is spot on. If 20mg was the standard dosage I'm way less confident in the amphetamine/sleep-deprivation hallucinations explanation. But it looks like they inhaled it rather than took it as amphetamine salt tablets like most people do today, so the bioavailability may have been different and potentially more potent than someone who takes it orally.

Then there's the question of even if they were prescribed 20mg per day, were they given a week's or month' supply at a time or did they have to pick it up each and every day? If they had more than a day's worth of it then it would have been way easier to abuse. Still, I'm not feeling too confident that amphetamine use is the likely culprit here.
 
What we really need is a "UFO/Aliens Speculative Chitchat" subforum or "UFO meta", for all the threads like this one.

Maybe...but people keep on believing in UFOs ( in fact the hype is getting worse ) despite all the debunking. Chat about why people believe what they do may be long winded and speculative but if it can be honed to within some guidelines it might lead to better strategies for dealing with the hype.
 
Chat about why people believe what they do may be long winded and speculative but [...] it might lead to better strategies for dealing with the hype.

i know. that's what the "meta" in Metabunk means. :)
 
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Good one @AR318307, thanks. I added it as point no. 6 below (unable to edit the OP anymore) and indeed an important aspect of the flap that we've covered at MB in many threads. I also added LIZ sensor data as no. 7 which I had totally forgotten but which remains a key factor contributing to UFO lore. The following 8-point comprehensive hypothesis is beginning to look rather exhaustive.

Comprehensive UFO Hypothesis

The resurgent UFO flap, including the very existence of publicly funded UAP investigation entities, is a unique example of:


(1) The inherent vulnerability of democratic governments to the influence of able political lobby groups consisting of relatively few leading individuals;

(2) Supported by a large number of ideologically committed believers both inside and outside the government;

(3) Drawing variously on entertainment-based sci-fi folklore, lack of purpose, lack of belonging, need for attention, and sometimes involving grifters manipulating the foregoing for personal gain;

Regarding the tentative and non-exhaustive list of psychological "needs" under 3, @yoshy had cited this study ("Need for uniqueness motivates conspiracy beliefs") on another thread:

Article:
Following up on previous findings that people high in need for uniqueness resist majority and yield to minority influence, Study 3 experimentally shows that a fictitious conspiracy theory received more support by people high in conspiracy mentality when this theory was said to be supported by only a minority (vs. majority) of survey respondents. Together, these findings support the notion that conspiracy beliefs can be adopted as a means to attain a sense of uniqueness.


There's also this study ("Why do narcissists find conspiracy theories so appealing?") on narcissism being a robust predictor of belief in conspiracy theories:

Article:
Narcissism—a conviction about one's superiority and entitlement to special treatment—is a robust predictor of belief in conspiracy theories. Recent developments in the study of narcissism suggest that it has three components: antagonism, agentic extraversion, and neuroticism. We argue that each of these components of narcissism might predispose people to endorse conspiracy theories due to different psychological processes. Specifically, we discuss the role of paranoia, gullibility, and the needs for dominance, control, and uniqueness. We also review parallel findings for narcissistic beliefs about one's social groups. We consider the wider implications this research might have, especially for political leadership. We conclude by discussing outstanding questions about sharing conspiracy theories and other forms of misinformation.


We are not psychoanalyzing anyone here. Nor have the various main factors (now 8) listed in the comprehensive hypothesis popped up out of the blue due to some wild unfounded speculation. It's just that we've covered many of those points in so many threads with so many citations to different studies that I wanted find a way to integrate the 'big picture' evidence under a coherent framework.

(4) Sustained by the impressionability of the generality of people;

Many studies address the phenomenon of impressionability using different terminologies, and demonstrate its prevalence. This study ("The psychological drivers of misinformation belief and its resistance to correction") delves into some of the psychological factors underlying belief in false information:

Article:
However, lack of access to high-quality information is not necessarily the primary precursor to false-belief formation; a range of cognitive, social and affective factors influence the formation of false beliefs (Fig. 1). False beliefs generally arise through the same mechanisms that establish accurate beliefs. When deciding what is true, people are often biased to believe in the validity of information30, and ‘go with their gut’ and intuitions instead of deliberating.


Drivers of false beliefs.JPG

(8) As a belief system, the UFO ideology consists of many semi-canonized faith-based tenets that precede evidence, looks for whatever evidentiary support it can find, and thrives in the low information zone (anecdotes and low-information physical records) in the absence of scientifically more compelling evidence.

Regarding 8, a special type of confirmation bias is hypothesized by this study ("Conspiracist Ideation and Biased Attribuion of Intentionality") to predict belief in conspiracy theories:

Article:
Conspiracist beliefs are widespread and potentially hazardous. A growing body of research suggests that cognitive biases may play a role in endorsement of conspiracy theories. The current research examines the novel hypothesis that individuals who are biased towards inferring intentional explanations for ambiguous actions are more likely to endorse conspiracy theories, which portray events as the exclusive product of intentional agency.
 
There's also this study ("Why do narcissists find conspiracy theories so appealing?") on narcissism being a robust predictor of belief in conspiracy theories:

from study: (bold for emphasis)
Article:
In three studies, all conducted with US samples, Cichocka and colleagues [5] demonstrated that endorsement of conspiracy theories was related to narcissism—a belief in one's superiority and a sense of entitlement to special treatment, characterised by sensitivity to threats [6∗∗, 7, 8].

Importantly, the effects were unique to narcissism and did not emerge for secure, non-narcissistic self-esteem—a positive self-evaluation characterised by feelings of adequacy and satisfaction with oneself, which can serve as a buffer against psychological threats [7].


did the effects occur for narcissists with high self esteem?
did the effects occur for non-narcissists with low self esteem characterized by sensitivity to threats?

add: they use the terms "might" and "likely" quite a bit in that "current opinion" paper.
 
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So I brought this up in the Grusch thread and @LilWabbit directed me here.

Has anyone explicitly drawn a connection between this and religion? There is quite a lot of literature discussing the genetic / evolutionary arguments for religion. They tend to rely on group selection which is a concept not widely accepted, but currently debated.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolutionary_origin_of_religion
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Evolutionary_psychology_of_religion

However even without a genetic explanation for religion, it is certainly common to most societies historically, and is generally seen to be a net positive to the survival of a group, especially during difficult times.

Sosis also researched 200 utopian communes in the 19th-century United States, both religious and secular (mostly socialist). 39 percent of the religious communes were still functioning 20 years after their founding while only 6 percent of the secular communes were.

Religion is a very hard term to define, but we can go with Durkheim's:

A religion is a unified system of beliefs and practices relative to sacred things, that is to say, things set apart and forbidden–beliefs and practices which unite in one single moral community called a Church, all those who adhere to them

I would add onto this, that there is a broader function of hope, meaning and purpose that religion offers to its believers. A strong argument for the recent secularisation of the West, beyond the challenges presented by the scientific revolution is that life simply got better, and people have gone elsewhere to satisfy their needs for these things - consumerism, social media, etc.

1691229704134.png

I would make a broader argument that this tide is now turning, and life is now perceived to be getting harder for many in the West. I can provide extensive links if this is contentious - life expectancy, real wages, social isolation, depression, climate change, etc.

One would then expect to see either an increased belief in traditional religions or a new wave of proto religions emerging. There seems to be no increase in traditional religious beliefs but I see two main contenders for new proto religions - the AGI singularity and Ufology.

Both rely on these ideas saving humanity, as well as providing strong community identity, faith based reasoning, meaning and purpose to their lives. These have a lot of the hallmarks of traditional religions.

For example I see parallels between the development of the resurrection myth in the Gospels and how the Ufology lore has developed and become embellished over time.

If we are dealing with the development of a new religion due to societal level negative expectations about the future, it would seem this may be harder to debunk than simply stating the facts, especially if you accept group selection (evolutionary) explanations for religion.

I put this forward as an alternative or complimentary explanation beyond the conspiracy minded narrative discussed above.
 
I think you've left out the most important factor of all, to the UFO 'phenomenon'. The entire reason there is regarded to be a distinct phenomenon at all...

It could best be called......:- Conflation. The merging and alleged correlating of totally unrelated events into a single 'phenomenon'.

Joe Bloggs sees an unknown in the sky. It's probably a bird. John Doe sees an unknown in the sky. It's probably Starlink. There is no actual connection whatever between the two....yet by the time the two reports reach the MUFON database a correlation has been magicked out of nowhere and they both saw ' a UFO'.

This is the very bedrock of the entire UFO 'phenomenon'. A massive conjuring trick in which birds and Venus and Starlink and balloons and so on are all thrown into the magicians magic hat and out pops.....aliens !
 
but I see two main contenders for new proto religions - the AGI singularity and Ufology.

Both rely on these ideas saving humanity, as well as providing strong community identity, faith based reasoning, meaning and purpose to their lives. These have a lot of the hallmarks of traditional religions.

i don't know what AGI singularity is, but if your looking for things that meet your list I'd add politics to the contenders.

Maybe ufologists arent looking to refill their God deficit, maybe they are looking to refill their faith in their fellow man (in general, but also in political leaders).
 
i don't know what AGI singularity is, but if your looking for things that meet your list I'd add politics to the contenders.

Maybe ufologists arent looking to refill their God deficit, maybe they are looking to refill their faith in their fellow man (in general, but also in political leaders).

It does seem to give a purpose, almost a sense of justice to uncover important truths, to many of them. And as such that's a healthy feeling to seek justice. But it's just very misguided by false beliefs in this case.
 
AGI = artificial general intelligence
singularity = the point at which AGIs become self improving and an intelligence explosion takes off - akin to the cambrian explosion for biological life.

transhumanists in SV have a cult like belief that the singularity will lead to basically everything good under the sun. aging - solved. pain - solved. near limitless energy - solved. upload minds into computers and travel the universe - solved.

when pushed to defend why this would not spell the end of humans, knocking us off the top spot for intelligence, there is simply an argument of faith that things will be fine or the inevitability that it can't be avoided, that general intelligence is the next step in evolution.

like most of SV its very culty.
 
I'm familiar with most terminology associated with transhumanism; it's an interesting idea in science fiction, but problematic in real life for various reasons.

But I've never heard of SV, as far as I can recall.
 
A very plausible depiction, imo, by @JMartJr and therefore wanted to include it in this thread.

There may be a less sinister explanation;

1.1) There are a lot of UFO believers in the world at large. Barring an effort to proactively screen them out, many will wind up working for the government, some at high levels. At some point, they find each other and/or are found by believe activists outside of government and start talking to each other, convincing each other about things and eventually some go public. (NOTE: This is consistent with, but does not require, some folks consciously seeking to enhance their own positions/funding within or outside of the government, for financial or other reasons.)
 
As per @JMartJr 's excellent encapsulation, if the DoD is anything like the military establishment that hires me, then the DoD is an equal opportunity employer seeking to recruit tens of thousands of specific experts for specific tasks irrespective of their beliefs or non-beliefs.

One can be a brilliant expert in one's professional field while privately espousing beliefs that reflect a less professional methodology of establishing a truth.

This fact becomes problematic only when (1) these experts use their clout as 'experts', 'special clearance people' or 'high-ranking officials' / 'managers' for making statements outside their area of expertise which lay people have little competence, or confidence, to dispute; and when (2) their personal beliefs begin to interfere and undermine their professional duties.

The latter seems to be the case with some of the ufologists that were formerly employed by the DoD.
 
but culture has a pretty powerful effect on the content of hallucinations so when you add the effects of amphetamines and sleep deprivation to individuals in a constant state of hypervigilance and stress in the middle of a war it wouldn't be surprising that their own hallucinations would reflect their own fears and the cultural mythos of the time.
I took this a couple of days ago in izium, where people are losing their foot to butterfly mines every so often.
You could see I lost my train of thought for a few seconds and I deal with stress well, though haven't been sleeping well due to heat and sharing rooms. Now you put someone normal in a plane doing dangerous missions give them drugs, put them under stress for long time, deprive them if sleep, now it's a wonder that more don't hallucinate, the power of human will power I guess



It's like after you see 1 snake
Then afterwards every stick you see it's a snake.
 
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i dont want to derail this from focusing on ufos. i was just meaning to draw parallels between two cult / religious like belief systems that are currently emerging that could support the religious argument alongside the existing ones discussed here.

if you want to learn more about the various AGI / singularity cults, its a very interesting rabbit hole, probably as deep as the UFO one. Except instead of the military industrial complex, it's the leaders of the some of the largest tech and VC companies.

- https://cab.unime.it/journals/index.php/IMAGO/article/view/1295
- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/11/...ts-the-idea-that-the-singularity-is-here.html
- https://aiascendant.substack.com/p/extropias-children-chapter-7
- https://effectiveaccelerationism.substack.com/p/repost-notes-on-eacc-principles-and
- https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MnF...round-miri-and-cfar-inspired-by-zoe#Debugging
- https://archive.is/iQk66
 
One would then expect to see either an increased belief in traditional religions or a new wave of proto religions emerging. There seems to be no increase in traditional religious beliefs but I see two main contenders for new proto religions - the AGI singularity and Ufology.

Both rely on these ideas saving humanity, as well as providing strong community identity, faith based reasoning, meaning and purpose to their lives. These have a lot of the hallmarks of traditional religions.

For example I see parallels between the development of the resurrection myth in the Gospels and how the Ufology lore has developed and become embellished over time.

Thanks for this informative and interesting post which parallels, albeit with a slightly different emphasis, with what @Dr.Robert wrote earlier in the thread. I would perhaps tie it to the overall 'search for purpose' (for a sub-group of ufologists) which, for some, may be connected more with the 'justice' side of disclosures (humanity deserves to know and the sinister 'they' hides the truth), and for others, with some kind of a human evolution into physically, technologically, socially, intellectually and spiritually higher being, or even a union with a higher species. Transhumanism is related to the latter. But so are other beliefs.

Perhaps the most extreme example of a UFO cult was the Heaven's Gate whose members committed a mass suicide in 1997 and who literally believed they're aliens in human bodies needing to break out of their shells like butterflies from cocoons. Also Mormonism / LDS -- with its tenet of God "exalting" good believers after their death by granting each their own planet to oversee (caveat: this is a caricaturized version of the tenet) -- seems to provide a fertile breeding ground for ufologists. The LDSs believe that God has a body and literally lives on a planet with Jesus who is literally his physical son, and all mankind literally his children. Someone correct me if I simplified things too much. I do not wish to offend anyone. And the intention to articulate these tenets is not to ridicule.

But yes, there's definitely a religious element in ufology. And there are parallels to other belief systems, including a spectrum of believers whose belief may vary from doubtul to mild, from lukewarm to strong, from staunch to devout, from firebrand to diehard, and all the way to the fanatic extremist of the Heaven's Gate sort.
 
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i dont want to derail this from focusing on ufos. i was just meaning to draw parallels between two cult / religious like belief systems that are currently emerging that could support the religious argument alongside the existing ones discussed here.

if you want to learn more about the various AGI / singularity cults, its a very interesting rabbit hole, probably as deep as the UFO one. Except instead of the military industrial complex, it's the leaders of the some of the largest tech and VC companies.

- https://cab.unime.it/journals/index.php/IMAGO/article/view/1295
- https://www.nytimes.com/2023/06/11/...ts-the-idea-that-the-singularity-is-here.html
- https://aiascendant.substack.com/p/extropias-children-chapter-7
- https://effectiveaccelerationism.substack.com/p/repost-notes-on-eacc-principles-and
- https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/MnF...round-miri-and-cfar-inspired-by-zoe#Debugging
- https://archive.is/iQk66

Thanks, we touched on transhumanism, techno-optimism and longtermism (which often carry questionable eugenic undercurrents) espoused by the likes of Elon Musk and Sam Altman on this thread critically addressing the claim "Generative AI is Sentient". Some of the same people are also ufologists of varying types.
 
The biggest problem with explaining consciousness in terms of quantum mechanics is not simply the woo factor but that it doesn't provide an explanation. If consciousness cannot be explained in terms of neurons, or synapses, or molecules, or even at standard atomic chemistry level....why would it be any more explicable in terms of quantum mechanics ? That is something the QM consciousness advocates can never answer.
they have just seen a video of the double slit experiment and quantum entanglement and all of a sudden this gives them a free ticket to "the circe de woo world tour".

...instead of reading boring papers or listening to not so easy digestible interviews with actual authorities on the matter and realize why its not as easy as their tiktok or youtube short is suggesting (surprise)
 
Also Mormonism / LDS -- with its tenet of God "exalting" good believers after their death by granting each their own planet to oversee (caveat: this is a caricaturized version of the tenet) -- seems to provide a fertile breeding ground for ufologists.
Bear in mind that LDS boys can begin studying for the priesthood when they are not old enough to shave - as young as eleven - and are at a very impressionable and non-critical age. It is perhaps understandable that they become heavily invested in some rather speculative concepts without having the maturity to examine the claims skeptically.
 
Has anyone explicitly drawn a connection between this and religion?
there's definitely a religious element in ufology

A study which found a correlation between belief in paranormal phenomena (not specifically UFOs) and the mistaken identification of intelligent control of a stimulus didn't find a correlation between religious belief and mistaken attribution of agency.

Furthermore, it was found that illusory agency detection was unrelated to traditional religious belief and belief in witchcraft, whereas paranormal beliefs (i.e. Psi, spiritualism, precognition, superstition) were strongly related to illusory agency detection.
Content from External Source
"Paranormal believers are more prone to illusory agency detection than skeptics", Michiel van Elk, 2013
Consciousness and Cognition Vol. 22 (3), link here. The abstract and some findings are viewable, the rest is paywalled.

I was surprised about the witchcraft finding, isn't witchcraft based on beliefs in unlikely methods of agency- spells etc?
The modest study size (67 subjects, 29 recruited at a "paranormal fair") may have been a confounding factor, not returning a representative sample of Dutch witches. :rolleyes: When I joined Metabunk I never thought I'd type that last phrase...
Equally, the number of subjects should be sufficient to return a statistically significant result about religious belief generally if the S's were broadly representative of Netherlands people (55.4% Irreligion, 37.5% Christianity, 5.2% Islam, thanks Wikipedia).

There are similarities between some groups of UFO believers and some "new age" religions, I think.
George Adamski's followers- gullible but mostly harmless; believers in Billy Meier- who combine faith in beautiful (blonde) Pleiadeans with racist "prophecies"; Heaven's Gate, etc. etc.
I'm not sure that UFO "believers" constitute a nascent religion, though, even if they increasingly seem to hold and share "canonical" beliefs (retrieved alien spacecraft, Government cover-up, heroic whistle-blowers, ET's with unhealthy interests in cattle bits and human reproduction).
 
I was surprised about the witchcraft finding, isn't witchcraft based on beliefs in unlikely methods of agency- spells etc?
as opposed to prayer? Like voodoo, the rituals and garb may look different, but they are all generally the same thing.
 
A study which found a correlation between belief in paranormal phenomena (not specifically UFOs) and the mistaken identification of intelligent control of a stimulus didn't find a correlation between religious belief and mistaken attribution of agency.

Well, no, that's not the same thing as whether UFOlogy is itself a religion.

To me, the hallmark of any religion is a them/us stance with regard to 'unbelievers'. The minute one can collectively identify unbelievers then by definition one has a canon and creed they don't believe in and hence one that the believers do. And on some UFO forums I have seen for myself the adoption of a stance towards skepticism that is akin to blasphemy. I've seen people demand that their video of what is clearly a bird 'must' be a UFO and cannot be a bird....in a manner no different to people who demand that miracles 'must' be occurring at Lourdes. I've even seen calls for skeptical people to be removed from forums....i.e excommunicated and damned to outer darkness.

UFOlogy is most definitely a religion.
 
To me, the hallmark of any religion is a them/us stance with regard to 'unbelievers'.
eek.

that is akin to blasphemy
eek.
I've even seen calls for skeptical people to be removed from forums....i.e excommunicated and damned to outer darkness.
people punished and/or removed from forums for disagreeing? say it ain't so. :)



UFOlogy is most definitely a religion.
is Skepticism a religion then?
 
is Skepticism a religion then?

I'd argue in some cases, yes. When I was on Michael Shermer's forum I recall one 'skeptic' whose attitude towards anyone who did not 100% agree with his interpretation of everything would have put the Spanish Inquisition to shame. I think it is probably easier to hide a need to be right about absolutely everything behind a veil of being 'a skeptic' and hence totally rational and must be right.
 
I'd argue in some cases, yes.

cool.

this is an example though of my general distaste in trying to shame groups by comparing them to other groups.
I do personally believe ufology is like a religion for SOME cases. As i personally believe skepticism is like a religion for SOME cases.

We must remember that online life is not representative of real life. Other than my closest friends (maybe 3) I never debunk people in real life, and even with those 3 i rarely do. And, imo, maybe 10% of skeptics post online about issues like UFOs. and likely only 10% of ufologist posts online about UFOs..meaning, we are getting, on both sides of the isle, the most invested only.*

*or people who are just bored. UFOs are extremely boring, and yet...here i am :)
 
I'd argue in some cases, yes. When I was on Michael Shermer's forum I recall one 'skeptic' whose attitude towards anyone who did not 100% agree with his interpretation of everything would have put the Spanish Inquisition to shame. I think it is probably easier to hide a need to be right about absolutely everything behind a veil of being 'a skeptic' and hence totally rational and must be right.
Yeah but I think this guy, as he most assuredly was, was not atrue sceptic. Like the Nazis were socialists or North Korea is democratic.
(*) It's in name only, To me sceptic is someone who when presented with facts that don't align to what they thought then they alter their thoughts, they don't dogmatically stick to their supposition . Yes question every thing, I forget the ten for the Greeks that done this, stoic, maybe but when facts don't align then back down otherwise in English the term for you is a prick.

(*)Had to laugh yesterday when a person in russian government said yes Russia is not true democracy Putin will be elected next year with 90% support, gotta appreciate his candour

Edit googled stoic is wrong word.
 
Here is an updated and amended 'UFO big picture hypothesis' (prosaic) based on the discussion thus far including links to relevant threads (feel free to remind me of more threads if you remember good ones) on MB exploring evidence and causal analysis on these 8 points:

The resurgent UFO flap, including the very existence of publicly funded UAP investigation entities, is a unique example of:

(1) The inherent vulnerability of a certain democratic government to the influence of able political lobby groups consisting of relatively few leading individuals;


(2) Supported by a large number of ideologically committed believers both inside and outside the government, and which constitutes an important demographic for congress members across party lines even if not all are genuine believers themselves

(3) Drawing variously on entertainment-based sci-fi folklore, need for purpose, need for a peer group, need for attention, need to feel special, and sometimes involving grifters manipulating the foregoing for personal gain;

(4) Sustained by the impressionability and lack of critical thought amongst the generality of people;

(5) Also sustained by a vast number of sincere eyewitness reports from the general public as well as trained professionals, whereby the power of human imagination together with the brain's visual perception functions and unusual viewing conditions (such as parallax illusions), further informed by cultural fiction and myth, fills observational information gaps;

(6) Also sustained by a small number of sincere reports of encounter experiences with aliens (including detailed stories of abductions, physical contact, crafts, etc.), whereby psychotic, hallucinatory or autosuggestive episodes, informed by cultural fiction and myth, are sincerely believed and remembered as real encounters;

(7) Also sustained by continuously emerging unidentifiable low-information sensor data (including photographs and video footage) of mundane airborne objects which are bound to invite UFO speculation. Even the most cutting-edge sensors of the future will have their capability limits at which they will generate low-information sensor data;


(8) As a belief system, the UFO ideology consists of many semi-canonized faith-based tenets that precede evidence, looks for whatever evidentiary support it can find, and thrives in the low information zone (anecdotes and low-information physical records) in the absence of scientifically more compelling evidence.


(1-2)

UAPs, Bigelow, and the "Invisible College": https://www.metabunk.org/threads/uaps-bigelow-and-the-invisible-college.11850/
Are All US Government Projects Linked to the Skinwalker Ranch?: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/ar...fo-projects-linked-to-skinwalker-ranch.12490/
The UAP Policy an Discursive Shift - Changing Narratives on UAPs and Its Effect on Policy: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/th...tives-on-uaps-and-its-effect-on-policy.11868/
House Oversight Hearing on UAPs - July 26, 2023: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/house-oversight-hearing-on-uaps-july-26-2023.13049/
The Congressional UAP Hearings Debrief: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/the-congressional-uap-hearings-debrief.13077/
Comprehensive UAP Hypothesis: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/comprehensive-uap-hypothesis.11786/
Are Republicans and Conservatives More Likely to Believe Conspiracy Theories?: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/ar...elieve-conspiracy-theories.13004/#post-292732
NASA's UAP Team Bigelow Aerospace Connection: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/nasas-uap-team-bigelow-aerospace-connection.12713/

(5)

The Scientific Weight of Eyewitness Testimony: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/the-scientific-weight-of-eyewitness-testimony.11929/
Are All UFO Reports Wrong or are They Evidence that UFOs Exist?: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/ar...g-or-are-they-evidence-that-ufos-exist.12728/
Bayesian Argument to Believe in Aliens: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/bayesian-argument-to-believe-in-aliens.12400/
Fravor's Hypersonic UFO Observation. Parallax Illusion? Comparing Accounts: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/fr...n-parallax-illusion-comparing-accounts.10941/
(3-4, 6 and 8)

When Conspiracists Psychoanalyze: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/when-conspiracists-psychoanalyze.12536/
Degrees of Belief: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/degrees-of-belief.13033/
How to Detect a Biased Source?: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/how-to-detect-a-biased-source.11955/
Psychological Factors That Led Me into the Rabbit Hole: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/psychological-factors-that-lead-me-into-the-rabbit-hole.2041/

(7)

Forums: UFO Videos and Reports from the US Navy: https://www.metabunk.org/forums/ufo-videos-and-reports-from-the-us-navy.60/
Explained: The Navy UFO Videos: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/explained-the-navy-ufo-videos.11234/
2004 USS Nimitz Tic Tac UFO FLIR Footage (FLIR1): https://www.metabunk.org/threads/2004-uss-nimitz-tic-tac-ufo-flir-footage-flir1.9190/
Szydagis' Rebuttal of the "Why No Good UFO Photos" Argument: https://www.metabunk.org/threads/szydagis-rebuttal-of-the-why-no-good-ufo-photos-argument.12697/
Perennial Sensor Fluff (PSF): https://www.metabunk.org/threads/perennial-sensor-fluff-psf.11950/
 
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A study which found a correlation between belief in paranormal phenomena (not specifically UFOs) and the mistaken identification of intelligent control of a stimulus didn't find a correlation between religious belief and mistaken attribution of agency.
That's not quite the case I am making. I would expect to see a greater belief in UFOs amongst non believers or secular societies due to complex preferences (socioeconomic struggle, search for meaning, and group selection). btw you can access your full study with sci-hub https://sci-hub.st/10.1016/j.concog.2013.07.004

This NYT article sets out the argument quite well https://www.nytimes.com/2017/07/21/opinion/sunday/dont-believe-in-god-maybe-youll-try-ufos.html

A Pew study shows people with traditional religious beliefs are less likely to believe in UFOs/aliens. https://www.pewresearch.org/short-r...eve-intelligent-life-exists-on-other-planets/

In Study 1, we experimentally establish that the motive to find meaning in life increases ETI beliefs. In Study 2, we replicate previous research demonstrating that low religiosity is associated with greater ETI beliefs.
Content from External Source
https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s11031-017-9605-y

Using a multilevel model, we find that lower income, GDP, and social welfare availability are associated with more religiosity, and increases in social security through government welfare expenditure reduces country levels of religiosity over the 12 year period.
Content from External Source
https://academic.oup.com/socrel/article/78/2/146/3079315

The US in particular has gone through 4 periods of religious revival called "Great Awakenings". The causes of such periods are complex and not easily isolated. This presents a good summary, but the broad argument is technological change and its impacts on society. They are waves, as the causes of such revival become political movements that eventually solve the problems and cause the decline once again. A rebalancing of society if you will.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Awakening
https://press.uchicago.edu/Misc/Chicago/256626.html

In summary,
  • Secularisation has been strongly correlated with modernisation, rising material conditions, GDP, social security etc.
  • Religious belief systems however provide a wide set of social group functions, and may be preferred genetically via group selection
  • Gaining material prosperity does not remove those preferences, but masks them via other functions.
  • When times get hard, we should expect see a resurgence in religious belief systems
  • Traditional religious beliefs are too outmoded for our highly scientific and technological society
  • Ufology (and the Singularity) represent proto-religions that are more compatible with the science of our times.

People haven't suddenly become more rational creatures and there are perhaps much more fundamental and significant challenges to countering such a belief system.
 
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