• MH370 speculation has become excessive recently. Metabunk is not a forum for creating theories by speculation. It's a forum for examining claims, and seeing if they hold up. Please respect this and keep threads on-topic. There are many other forums where speculation is welcome.

Flight MH370 Speculation

Status
Not open for further replies.
Mick West said:
It's impossible, as there are far more planes flying in a day (80,000+ according to WW's source) than there are codes (<4,000 when special uses are removed)

Anecdotally, when I did my long distance solo, just 400 miles, I'm pretty sure I changed codes at least ten times.
http://mickwest.com/flying_lessons/lesson051.htm
Click to expand...
Congrats Mick, a bit OT but was it a hassle to change the codes that many times. Do commercial flights have priority over pvt jets, is that why you had to change it so many times
 
Mick West said:
It's impossible
Click to expand...
I will never accept this type of answer. IMO you are wrong for saying it.
Increase the code length or add letters into the mix and you can create the number of combinations needed. An airline can be assigned codes to use on a specific day and only those codes are used by that airline on that day only.
 
Soulfly said:
I will never accept this type of answer. IMO you are wrong for saying it.
Increase the code length or add letters into the mix and you can create the number of combinations needed. An airline can be assigned codes to use on a specific day and only those codes are used by that airline on that day only.
Click to expand...
Or better yet have each plane register with their government for a permanent code that is assigned to that aircraft for the life of the aircraft. This way entering the codes would become obsolete and entering them wouldn't even be necessary. The Xpnder would automatically squawk their ID CODE
 
Jason said:
Or better yet have each plane register with their government for a permanent code that is assigned to that aircraft for the life of the aircraft. This way entering the codes would become obsolete and entering them wouldn't even be necessary. The Xpnder would automatically squawk their ID CODE
Click to expand...

Pretty much what ADS-B and transponders already do.
 
WeedWhacker said:
Perhaps if you could design the protocols, and also the programming for all the ATC computer systems, and get patents, you would become wealthy?
Click to expand...
But honestly I don't see how adding an additional letter or digit should require patents. We're talking about another number. Are transponders only capable of a 4 digit input?
 
Jason said:
I think the simple answer is to go to a 5 digit code, maybe that would solve the riddle? Or is the xpndr only capable of having 4 digits entered into it at a time
Click to expand...

That would take it from 12 to 16 bits, or from 4096 to 65536, so yes it would certainly help, However there's already a better transponder standard in place. Mode S, which has 16 million codes. But is simply not used everywhere, so you have to be able to use the archaic Mode A (4096 codes)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Secondary_Surveillance_Radar#Mode_S

Jason said:
Or better yet have each plane register with their government for a permanent code that is assigned to that aircraft for the life of the aircraft. This way entering the codes would become obsolete and entering them wouldn't even be necessary. The Xpnder would automatically squawk their ID CODE
Click to expand...

Sure, that would be great. But that's just not where we are now.
 
Soulfly said:
I will never accept this type of answer. IMO you are wrong for saying it.
Increase the code length or add letters into the mix and you can create the number of combinations needed. An airline can be assigned codes to use on a specific day and only those codes are used by that airline on that day only.
Click to expand...

It was the correct answer to your question.

You can't just increase the code lengths, because the code lengths are fixed. You'd have to use an entirely different system. Like Mode-S or ADS-B.
 
It seems fairly obvious for those of us who aren't experienced pilots that we are making a mountain out of a hill here. I guess its sort of like my 9yr old son telling me how to drive my car. Xpnder or no Xpnder the same result would've happened is what I'm getting. The plane would've been just as lost, am I understanding this correctly
 
Mick West said:
It was the correct answer to your question.

You can't just increase the code lengths, because the code lengths are fixed. You'd have to use an entirely different system. Like Mode-S or ADS-B.
Click to expand...
Which would make it not impossible, only require a different system.
 
Had this plane been hijacked and landed yet still not know where it was, and people could still be alive. I sure as hell bet more people would be wanting a change to the tracking systems. But since they are dead who cares. Good luck with that.
 
Jason said:
It seems fairly obvious for those of us who aren't experienced pilots that we are making a mountain out of a hill here. I guess its sort of like my 9yr old son telling me how to drive my car. Xpnder or no Xpnder the same result would've happened is what I'm getting. The plane would've been just as lost, am I understanding this correctly
Click to expand...
The plane still would have ended up where ever it is now and we wouldn't know it's exact location. But I find it highly unlikely that 2 weeks would have been wasted looking where we now know it is not, had the transponder stayed on.
 
I would have difficulty imagining a scenario in which a B777 could land somewhere and not be noticed. (Except for a military installation, of course...but this implies far more collusion).
 
Soulfly said:
The plane still would have ended up where ever it is now and we wouldn't know it's exact location. But I find it highly unlikely that 2 weeks would have been wasted looking where we now know it is not, had the transponder stayed on.
Click to expand...
I agree, but the problem that we're also facing is the military radars that picked up the "unknown" plane didn't do anything about it. So if they were in this same zone and had their xpnder on, it would've been the same result. As pilots have been pointing out, these codes change frequently, and I doubt the same military that didn't detect an unknown plane in their airspace, would've noticed the "known" airplane in their airspace. The transponder being on would've gave us an earlier indication as to which way they turned sooner, and I think we can all agree to that. North vs south, could've shed some light on where to search and saved much needed time.
 
WeedWhacker said:
I would have difficulty imagining a scenario in which a B777 could land somewhere and not be noticed. (Except for a military installation, of course...but this implies far more collusion).
Click to expand...
I find it unlikely too, but not impossible. I mean you can change the code on the plane. Makes it easier to commit foul play. :)
 
Last edited:
Soulfly said:
I find it unlikely too, but no impossible. I mean you can change the code on the plane. Makes it easier to commit foul play. :)
Click to expand...

Ya know, it occurs to me that sometimes the best route to understanding is to walk in someone else's footsteps ( or, fly in their wake. ;) )

Have you considered flying lessons? Not to seem flippant, but it is something I occasionally bring up when trying to explain the lack-of-existence of "chem"trails, when on that topic.
 
WeedWhacker said:
Ya know, it occurs to me that sometimes the best route to understanding is to walk in someone else's footsteps ( or, fly in their wake. ;) )

Have you considered flying lessons? Not to seem flippant, but it is something I occasionally bring up when trying to explain the lack-of-existence of "chem"trails, when on that topic.
Click to expand...
If I did I would want the plane to be tracked at all times so if the plane was hijacked they could come shoot me down instead of letting my plane become a weapon. :) Lets go to the extremes!
 
Soulfly said:
Which would make it not impossible, only require a different system.
Click to expand...

Yes, but you could say that about anything.

What I mean was specifically that it is impossible to assign 4096 codes to 80000 planes and have no duplicates. Obviously there are solutions to the broader problem.
 
Mick West said:
Obviously there are solutions to the broader problem.
Click to expand...
Not according to some here, since any system put on a plane will have to have an off switch. How to solve this problem of needing an off switch needs to be addressed. Again just my opinion.
 
Jason said:
But honestly I don't see how adding an additional letter or digit should require patents. We're talking about another number. Are transponders only capable of a 4 digit input?
Click to expand...

Yes. They have four dials, each with 8 positions, giving 8x8x8x8 = 4096 possible codes:


And standard secondary radar is set to only receive 12 bits (2^12 = 4096 codes).

It's a hard wired limitation. But it's also one that's gradually being made obsolete with the introduction of newer technology.
 
Mick West said:
Yes. They have four dials, each with 8 positions, giving 8x8x8x8 = 4096 possible codes:


And standard secondary radar is set to only receive 12 bits (2^12 = 4096 codes).

It's a hard wired limitation. But it's also one that's gradually being made obsolete with the introduction of newer technology.
Click to expand...
Just out of curiosity, from mick or weedwhacker. When your ready to take of ATC will tell you your xpnder code, right? In these smaller planes you don't have a heads up radar display like commercial airliners, so you don't see whats in your area. You rely heavily on ATC for this information, right? While in flight, how does it happen, the request that is to change your xpnder code, and when you change the code do they verify that they see the change on their radar screen to confirm the change. What if you can't hear ATC, like your radio shorts out or you have a bad connection. What then? What happens if they tell you to change it to 1200 like above, but you don't or you change it to 1002 by accident or intentional. Do they make you aware of that, or no one knows the wiser. And what happens when you drop below where radar can see you? Do they still see you because you have the xpnder on or not? Do they ask you why you fell off of their radar or do they not even notice?
 
Jason said:
When your ready to take of ATC will tell you your xpnder code, right?
Click to expand...

For IFR flights this usually is included in your pre-departure clearance. (Obtained from Clearance Delivery, or Ground Control unless, as with most major airlines, it is just a datalink text message sent via ACARS). For VFR in special-use airspace (like Class B) it is assigned also by Clearance Delivery (at major airports) or Ground Control at smaller ones.

In these smaller planes you don't have a heads up radar display like commercial airliners, so you don't see whats in your area.
Click to expand...

Actually, even in General Aviation TCAS is available, for those who opt for it.


GA avionics are very sophisticated, nowadays. For example, the Cirrus is a small four-seat single engine light airplane:



While in flight, how does it happen, the request that is to change your xpnder code, and when you change the code do they verify that they see the change on their radar screen to confirm the change.
Click to expand...

Exactly.

What if you can't hear ATC, like your radio shorts out or you have a bad connection. What then? What happens if they tell you to change it to 1200 like above, but you don't or you change it to 1002 by accident or intentional. Do they make you aware of that, or no one knows the wiser.
Click to expand...

You mean, if ATC gives a xponder code, and then coincidentally BOTH (or all three, if equipped) Comm radios fail? Astronomical odds.
 
Last edited:
Jason said:
Just out of curiosity, from mick or weedwhacker. When your ready to take of ATC will tell you your xpnder code, right? In these smaller planes you don't have a heads up radar display like commercial airliners, so you don't see whats in your area. You rely heavily on ATC for this information, right? While in flight, how does it happen, the request that is to change your xpnder code, and when you change the code do they verify that they see the change on their radar screen to confirm the change. What if you can't hear ATC, like your radio shorts out or you have a bad connection. What then? What happens if they tell you to change it to 1200 like above, but you don't or you change it to 1002 by accident or intentional. Do they make you aware of that, or no one knows the wiser. And what happens when you drop below where radar can see you? Do they still see you because you have the xpnder on or not? Do they ask you why you fell off of their radar or do they not even notice?
Click to expand...

If ATC knows which blip you are on their screen, then they will just watch to see you changed the code.

If they don't know (like if you are just coming under their control) then you will ask you to "ident", which transmits an extra bit with the code that makes you light up on their screen.

You will be talking to them while doing this, so they will tell you if they can't see you, and get you to check the code, and switch radios, etc. If all fails, they might have you fly in a circle, and call out your position visually, until they get you down on primary radar.

If you are flying VFR, you don't actually have to talk to them, and can just squawk the default 1200 in most airspace. Generally though it's a good idea to be in the system - certainly round here, which is very busy airspace. Right next to LAX. Interestingly though, you can fly directly over LAX in a narrow north-south corridor while just squawking 1201 and telling the other planes where you are.
 
Mick West said:
Interestingly though, you can fly directly over LAX in a narrow north-south corridor while just squawking 1201 and telling the other planes where you are.
Click to expand...

Yes, the infamous "VFR Corridor" (Now called the "Special Flight Rules Area"):

[Broken External Image]:http://skyvector.com/?ll=33.93242629484997,-118.3053497555271&chart=114&zoom=2

(Ah, instead of the hassle of a screenshot, you can just use the link and zoom in/out and slew to see the Chart in its entirety. The relevant info boxes are to the left).

They have added more since I learned to fly in this area, there are more options and require communication with ATC.


Jason, maybe you'd like to take flying lessons? ;)
 
WeedWhacker said:
Jason, maybe you'd like to take flying lessons?
Click to expand...
I would love to if my wife would let me. She won't even let me get a motorcycle, and honestly its partly my fault. I'm sort of the clumsy guy. But honestly when my kids are in college or out of the house (i have 4 by the way), I will find the time and hopefully have the extra money to do that sort of thing.

Just out of curiosity, if someone wanted to be a commercial airline pilot how long would it take from start to finish. Also how expensive does it cost, and are they more likely to hire Military guys with experience?
 
Jason said:
Also how expensive does it cost, and are they more likely to hire Military guys with experience?
Click to expand...

Quite a number of years, but there are many variables. Same with cost. Military yes, but not always (this was far more prevalent back in the 50s, 60s and 70s). From what I've been reading, trend seems to point towards a large need in coming decades. Hate to say it, but age is often a limiting factor. (Again, historically this was the case). Back in my day, 30 - 35 used to be the cut-off, but even then things were changing.

I just Googled, and found this:
http://www.dailykos.com/story/2013/11/04/1252735/-So-you-want-to-be-an-airline-pilot#

(I haven't yet read it through, though)

Now, for some light entertainment:



And, extra (by the same comics). It relates to airline safety...sort of. Just to attempt to be on topic:
 
Just out of curiosity, could this flight have made it to Diego Garcia with the fuel it had on board?
 
Soulfly said:
I take your paranoia and mistrust in anyone who tells you what you have to do with a grain of salt now. Boohoo you had to take your shoes off. Get over it!
Click to expand...
Its not paranoia it a fact . Ask any pilot . I have two as customers and they agree 100 % especially with the food suppliers in large airports such as Atlanta . Its a false sense of security . What about the ground crew that sold contents from luggage from the crashed airplane in San Francisco . Theyd be easy to buy with a bit of money . Sounds like your paranoid and we need security to protect us ? The passengers are the biggest threat to a potential terrorist on any flight . They now know what the consequences will be if they don't act . TSA is a joke .
 
Joe said:
Its not paranoia it a fact . Ask any pilot . I have two as customers and they agree 100 % especially with the food suppliers in large airports such as Atlanta . Its a false sense of security . What about the ground crew that sold contents from luggage from the crashed airplane in San Francisco . Theyd be easy to buy with a bit of money . Sounds like your paranoid and we need security to protect us ? The passengers are the biggest threat to a potential terrorist on any flight . They now know what the consequences will be if they don't act . TSA is a joke .
Click to expand...
Then don't fly. Flying is not a right or freedom it is a privilege. If you don't like the rules then don't fly.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Similar threads

Mick West
Emails From a Pilot Regarding Starlink and Other Objects
Replies
3
Views
2K
Leekster
Leekster
Z.W. Wolf
Claim - The Brother of Nick Davies (AKA Phuket Word) Speaks
Replies
5
Views
2K
Mendel
Mendel
H
Claim: "50/50 chance" Saudi spy knew of 9/11, aided hijackers
Replies
25
Views
4K
Oystein
Oystein
I
The 1976 Iran F4 UAP/UFO case
2 3
Replies
114
Views
15K
Rick Robson
R
NorCal Dave
Meta Materials From UFOs
2 3 4
Replies
134
Views
27K
Gary C
Gary C

Latest posts

Back
Top